System and method for production forecasting and uses thereof

Abstract

Systems and methods are disclosed relating to production prediction and in some instances production optimization. For example, a method can include receiving multiphase data that can include production data and pressure data. The method can include upscaling the multiphase data to produce upscaled multiphase data and segmenting upscaled production data of the upscaled multiphase data to provide segmented production datasets based on segmentation criteria. The segmentation criteria can be provided based on upscaled pressure data of the upscaled multiphase data. The method can include predicting a future production of the one or more wells based on a decline curve analysis and the segmented production datasets. In some examples, the method can include optimizing a production of the one or more wells based on the predicted future production.

The invention claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method comprising:
 receiving multiphase data comprising production data and pressure data;   upscaling the multiphase data to produce upscaled multiphase data;   segmenting upscaled production data of the upscaled multiphase data to provide segmented production datasets based on segmentation criteria, the segmentation criteria being provided based on upscaled pressure data of the upscaled multiphase data; and   predicting a future production of the one or more wells based on a decline curve analysis (DCA) and the segmented production datasets.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising optimizing a production of the one or more wells based on the predicted future production. 
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the optimization comprising controlling a flow of hydrocarbons from a reservoir to a wellbore. 
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the optimization comprises:
 generating a command for adjusting one or more parameters at the one or more wells; and   communicating the command to a control system to cause the control system to adjust one or more operational parameters to optimize the production of the one or more wells.   
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 4 , wherein the one or more operational parameters include a flow rate, a pressure, and a temperature. 
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the segmenting of the upscaled production data is further based on a running window. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the production data characterizes a production volume of one or more wells, and the pressure data characterizes a wellhead pressure at the one or mor wells. 
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the upscaling is based on a scaling parameter. 
     
     
         9 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the segmentation criteria characterizes maximum and minimum flagged pressure or equivalent production rate pressure changes. 
     
     
         10 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 calculating a central tendency of the upscaled pressure data or of equivalent production rate data;   calculating a maximum of the central tendency and a minimum of the central tendency based on the upscaled pressure data;   calculate a percent change in a maximum central tendency;   calculating a percent change in a minimum central tendency; and   calculating a percent change in the upscaled pressure data or the equivalent production rate data.   
     
     
         11 . The method of  claim 5 , further comprising:
 calculating a mean and standard deviation of a maximum percent change of the central tendency;   calculating a mean and standard deviation of a minimum percent change of the central tendency;   calculating the maximum flagged pressure or equivalent production rate pressure change; and   calculating the minimum flagged pressure or equivalent production rate pressure change.   
     
     
         12 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein predicting comprises forecasting a primary production phase starting from a last production segment dataset of the segmented production datasets until a terminal decline rate using empirical models computed for each production segment of the production segment dataset. 
     
     
         13 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein predicting comprises forecasting other production phases using a fitted multiphase parameters to the terminal decline rate. 
     
     
         14 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein predicting comprises forecasting until an economic limit. 
     
     
         15 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein predicting comprise summing up predicted volumes from a production history, from forecasting using a multiphase system of empirical equation, and exponential model to an economic limit to provide the future prediction of the future production. 
     
     
         16 . A system comprising:
 one or more computing platforms configured to:
 receive multiphase data comprising production data and pressure data; 
 upscale the multiphase data to produce upscaled multiphase data; 
 segment upscaled production data of the upscaled multiphase data to provide segmented production datasets based on segmentation criteria, the segmentation criteria being provided based on upscaled pressure data of the upscaled multiphase data; and 
 predict a future production of the one or more wells based on a decline curve analysis (DCA) and the segmented production datasets. 
   
     
     
         17 . The system of  claim 16 , wherein the one or more computing platforms is configured to optimize the production of the one or more wells based on the predicted future production. 
     
     
         18 . A system comprising:
 a tool comprising:
 a data upscaler to:
 receive multiphase data comprising production data and pressure data; 
 upscale the multiphase data to produce upscaled multiphase data; 
 
 a production data segmenter to segment upscaled production data of the upscaled multiphase data to provide segmented production datasets based on segmentation criteria, the segmentation criteria being provided based on upscaled pressure data of the upscaled multiphase data; and 
 a production forecasting engine to predict a future production of the one or more wells based on a decline curve analysis (DCA) and the segmented production datasets. 
   
     
     
         19 . The system of  claim 18 , wherein the tool further comprises a segmentation criteria calculator to generate the segmentation criteria, wherein the segmentation criteria characterizes max and minimum flagged pressure or equivalent production rate pressure changes. 
     
     
         20 . The system of  claim 19 , wherein the tool further comprises a command generator to generate a command to control optimization of a production of the one or more wells based on the predicted future production.