Systems for prognosing remaining useful life

Abstract

Described herein are embodiments of systems and methods for determining remaining useful life (RUL) of an electro-mechanical device. The systems may include a compiler and an external network communicatively connected with the compiler. The compiler determines forecasted reliability of the part, determines actual reliability of the part, divides forecasted reliability by actual reliability to determine forecasted useful operation time, Tx, and subtracts total operation time T from forecasted useful operation time Tx to determine RUL.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A system for determining remaining useful life (RUL) of a vehicle part included in and/or on a vehicle comprising:
 a compiler; and   a dealer network communicatively connected with the compiler;   wherein the compiler determines forecasted reliability of the vehicle part, determines actual reliability of the vehicle part, divides forecasted reliability by actual reliability to determine forecasted useful operation time, Tx, and subtracts total operation time T from forecasted useful operation time Tx to determine RUL.   
     
     
         2 . The system of  claim 1  further comprising one or more sensors located in and/or on the vehicle part, wherein the one or more sensors are communicatively connected with the compiler. 
     
     
         3 . The system of  claim 2 , wherein the one or more sensors are communicatively connected with the compiler through a controller area network. 
     
     
         4 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the compiler comprises a computer program installable to an electronic control unit located within the vehicle. 
     
     
         5 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the compiler is contained within a standalone computerized device. 
     
     
         6 . The system of  claim 5 , wherein the compiler is located within the vehicle. 
     
     
         7 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the vehicle is a conventional truck. 
     
     
         8 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the vehicle is a hybrid vehicle. 
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the vehicle is an electric vehicle. 
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 7 , wherein the operating modes comprise start, idle, run, and stop. 
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the operating modes comprise start, idle, run, and stop. 
     
     
         12 . The system of  claim 9 , wherein the operating modes comprise start, run, and stop. 
     
     
         13 . A system for determining remaining useful life (RUL) of a part of an electro-mechanical device comprising:
 a compiler; and   an external network communicatively connected with the compiler;   wherein the compiler determines forecasted reliability of the part, determines actual reliability of the part, divides forecasted reliability by actual reliability to determine forecasted useful operation time, Tx, and subtracts total operation time T from forecasted useful operation time Tx to determine RUL.   
     
     
         14 . The system of  claim 13  further comprising one or more sensors located in and/or on the part, wherein the sensor(s) are communicatively connected with the compiler. 
     
     
         15 . The system of  claim 14  wherein the compiler determines forecasted reliability of the part by:
 obtaining data from the external network identifying number of electro-mechanical devices in operation (N); 
 obtaining data from the external network identifying an acceptable maximum number of failures of the part (M TH ); 
 subtracting M TH  from N, and then dividing that value by N to provide a P(Tx) value; 
 calculating the negative natural log of P(Tx) to determine forecasted reliability; 
 
       and wherein the compiler determines actual reliability of the part by:
 obtaining data from the sensor(s) indicating total time that the electro-mechanical device has been in each of one or more operating modes in which the part was working; 
 dividing the total time that the electro-mechanical device has been in an operating mode in which the part has been working by total time the electro-mechanical device has been in operation, T, to yield percentage of total time T in which the part was working; 
 subtracting number of electro-mechanical devices where the part actually failed (M) from total number of electro-mechanical devices (N), and then dividing the resulting value by the total number of electro-mechanical devices (N); 
 multiplying the percentage of time that the electro-mechanical device is in an operating mode in which the part is working by the quotient of (N-M)/N, to determine P(T); 
 calculating the negative natural log of P(T) and dividing that value by total time T to yield actual reliability, ∧.