Orchestration framework to compute dynamic risk and impact maps

Abstract

Integrated dynamic impact or risk maps can be generated using borehole operation parameters, with associated impact parameters (representing a severity of an event) and softness parameters (representing a range or a percentage of the impact while not exceeding a critical threshold or an impact transition mechanism). As borehole operations are in progress, factors change over time, such as a change in depth, a change in temperature, a change in drilling fluid composition, the number of rotations, and other drilling and environmental factors. As these factors change, the associated impact and softness parameters can be dynamically updated with the current information. The resulting generation of dynamic impact or risk maps using this information is therefore updated to represent the most current conditions. The dynamic impact or risk maps can be utilized to determine modifications to borehole operations to reduce risk, costs, maintenance downtime, and improve return on investment of the borehole.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method, comprising:
 receiving input parameters for a location within a borehole that include subterranean formation parameters near the location and characteristics and parameters of a borehole operation assembly utilized within the borehole, wherein the input parameters further include input composite recommendations for a set of borehole operation parameters from more than one digital advisor, a respective impact parameter, a respective probability parameter of an event occurring, and a respective softness parameter for each recommendation of a borehole operation parameter in the set of borehole operation parameters;   modifying dynamically the respective impact parameter, and the respective softness parameter using a supervision of one or more critical events or the more than one digital advisor;   generating a set of dynamic impact maps utilizing the input parameters, wherein each dynamic impact map in the set of dynamic impact maps is a correlation of an impact or risk severity level with the borehole operation parameter in the set of borehole operation parameters, and the correlation utilizes at least one impact value and at least one softness value for the borehole operation parameter;   computing an integrated dynamic impact map utilizing the set of dynamic impact maps and a determined integration algorithm; and   determining one or more borehole operation recommendations utilizing the set of dynamic impact maps and the input parameters, wherein the one or more borehole operation recommendations specify at least one of a safe operating zone, a set point, an intermediate zone, or a no-go zone.   
     
     
         2 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , further comprising:
 executing a borehole operation plan for the borehole using the one or more borehole operation recommendations.   
     
     
         3 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein the set of dynamic impact maps are generated using one of a rule-based algorithm or a learning-based algorithm. 
     
     
         4 . The method as recited in  claim 3 , wherein the rule-based algorithm or the learning-based algorithm utilizes one or more criteria of a cumulative occurrence, cumulative duration, determined flags, determined conditions, determined events, or road map inputs, where the respective impact parameter, the respective probability parameter, and the respective softness parameter and the borehole operation recommendations are modified by the one or more criteria. 
     
     
         5 . The method as recited in  claim 4 , wherein the determined conditions indicate that the set of borehole operation parameters from the more than one digital advisor is overridden and the respective impact parameter, the respective probability parameter, and the respective softness parameter are set using other input parameters. 
     
     
         6 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , further comprising:
 communicating, using a result transceiver, the one or more borehole operation recommendations to a borehole system, wherein the borehole system is one or more of a reservoir system, a borehole operation system, a drilling system, a geo-steering system, a well site system, rig control system, or a user system.   
     
     
         7 . The method as recited in  claim 6 , further comprising:
 alerting a user or the borehole system when the one or more borehole operation recommendations determines an alert threshold is exceeded.   
     
     
         8 . The method as recited in  claim 6 , furthering comprising:
 modifying a borehole operation of the borehole operation assembly through automatically applying the one or more borehole operation recommendations.   
     
     
         9 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein the modifying utilizes a depth-based roadmap or a time-based road map, where the respective roadmap represents the at least one impact value, the at least one softness value, a set point value, or a recommendation of the borehole operation parameter corresponding to an advisor. 
     
     
         10 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein the generating utilizes an impact map register to generate the set of dynamic impact maps, wherein the impact map register stores impact maps and corresponding actions from previous borehole operations or from an offset well analysis. 
     
     
         11 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein the generating utilizes a machine learning system to generate the set of dynamic impact maps, wherein the machine learning system learns the dynamic impact maps and corresponding actions from previous borehole operations or from offset well analysis. 
     
     
         12 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein at least one dynamic impact map in the set of dynamic impact maps is generated within a specified time interval. 
     
     
         13 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein the one or more borehole operation recommendations specify the no-go zone, a go zone, a specific target, a limit, or a relative direction for future borehole operations. 
     
     
         14 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein the computing the integrated dynamic impact map further comprises:
 updating the set of dynamic impact maps utilizing a pre-job recommendation and a real-time or near real-time recommendation, wherein the updating utilizes an impact weighting for each impact severity, wherein the impact severity level corresponds to one borehole operation parameter in the set of borehole operation parameters;   extracting, for each borehole operation parameter, from each dynamic impact map in the set of dynamic impact maps at least one of the safe operating zone, the no-go zone, and the intermediate zone, to determine a set of discrete points;   storing as a vector in a set of vectors, each impact severity value at each discrete point in the set of discrete points;   calculating a combinate value for each of the set of vectors at each discrete point in the set of discrete points for the set of dynamic impact maps; and   computing the integrated dynamic impact map utilizing the combinate value for each of the set of vectors, wherein the integrated dynamic impact map is utilized to determine the safe operating zone, the no-go zone, and the intermediate zone.   
     
     
         15 . A system, comprising:
 a data transceiver, capable of receiving input parameters for a location within a borehole, wherein the input parameters include one or more of subterranean formation parameters near the location and characteristics and parameters of a borehole operation assembly utilized within the borehole, wherein the input parameters further include input composite recommendations for a set of borehole operation parameters from more than one digital advisor, a respective impact parameter, a respective probability parameter of an event occurring, and a respective softness parameter for each recommendation for a borehole operation parameter in the set of borehole operation parameters; and   an impact processor, capable of communicating with the data transceiver, dynamically modifying impact values, softness values, and associated limits using a supervision of one or more critical events or the various digital advisors, and using learnings gathered from previous wells or an offset well analysis, generating one or more dynamic impact maps utilizing the input parameters, computing an integrated dynamic impact map utilizing the one or more dynamic impact maps, and determining one or more borehole operation recommendations utilizing the integrated dynamic impact map, the one or more dynamic impact maps, and the input parameters, wherein, the one or more dynamic impact maps is a correlation of an impact severity level and the borehole operation parameters, and the correlation utilizes at least one impact value and at least one softness value for each drilling parameter, and the one or more borehole operation recommendations specify a safe operating zone, a no-go zone, or an intermediate zone for the borehole operation parameters, and the one or more borehole operation recommendations are used to modify a borehole operation plan of the borehole.   
     
     
         16 . The system as recited in  claim 15 , wherein the impact processor is further capable of using a scalable algorithm to utilize a roadmap for multiple advisors and borehole operation parameters generated from an impact map register or from a machine learning system. 
     
     
         17 . The system as recited in  claim 15 , further comprising:
 an alert management system capable of generating an alert and communicating the alert to a user or a borehole system at a time when the impact values, the softness values, or the associated limits change according to a depth roadmap or a time roadmap.   
     
     
         18 . The system as recited in  claim 15 , further comprising:
 a machine learning system, capable of communicating with the data transceiver and the impact processor, performing an analysis of the input parameters to generate the one or more dynamic impact maps.   
     
     
         19 . The system as recited in  claim 15 , further comprising:
 a result transceiver, capable of communicating the one or more borehole operation recommendations and interim outputs to a user system, a data store, or a computing system.   
     
     
         20 . The system as recited in  claim 19 , wherein the computing system is a geo-steering system, and the geo-steering system utilizes the one or more borehole operation recommendations to automatically adjust drilling operations of the borehole. 
     
     
         21 . The system as recited in  claim 15 , wherein the impact processor is further capable of generating a visual representation of the integrated dynamic impact map, and a user identifies a user specified recommendation, a user identified safe operating zone, or a user identified no-go zone using the visual representation. 
     
     
         22 . A computer program product having a series of operating instructions stored on a non-transitory computer-readable medium that directs a data processing apparatus when executed thereby to perform operations to determine one or more borehole operation recommendations, the operations comprising:
 receiving input parameters for a location within a borehole that include subterranean formation parameters near the location and characteristics and parameters of a borehole operation assembly utilized within the borehole, wherein the input parameters further include input composite recommendations for a set of borehole operation parameters from more than one digital advisor, a respective impact parameter, a respective probability parameter of an event occurring, and a respective softness parameter for each recommendation of a borehole operation parameter in the set of borehole operation parameters;   modifying dynamically the respective impact parameter, and the respective softness parameter using a supervision of one or more critical events or the more than one digital advisor;   generating a set of dynamic impact maps utilizing the input parameters, wherein each dynamic impact map in the set of dynamic impact maps is a correlation of an impact or risk severity level with the borehole operation parameter in the set of borehole operation parameters, and the correlation utilizes at least one impact value and one softness value for the borehole operation parameter;   computing an integrated dynamic impact map utilizing the set of dynamic impact maps and a determined integration algorithm;   determining one or more borehole operation recommendations utilizing the set of dynamic impact maps and the input parameters, wherein the one or more borehole operation recommendations specify at least one of a safe operating zone, a set point, an intermediate zone, or a no-go zone; and   directing an execution of a borehole operation plan for the borehole using the one or more borehole operation recommendations.   
     
     
         23 . The computer program product as recited in  claim 22 , wherein the computing the integrated dynamic impact map further comprises:
 updating the set of dynamic impact maps utilizing a prejob recommendation and a real-time or near real-time recommendation, wherein the updating utilizes an impact weighting for each impact severity, wherein the impact severity level corresponds to one borehole operation parameter in the set of borehole operation parameters;   extracting, for each borehole operation parameter, from each dynamic impact map in the set of dynamic impact maps at least one of the safe operating zone, the no-go zone, and the intermediate zone, to determine a set of discrete points;   storing as a vector in a set of vectors, each impact severity value at each discrete point in the set of discrete points;   calculating a combinate value for each of the set of vectors at each discrete point in the set of discrete points for the set of dynamic impact maps; and   computing the integrated dynamic impact map utilizing the combinate value for each of the set of vectors, wherein the integrated dynamic impact map is utilized to determine the safe operating zone, the no-go zone, and the intermediate zone.   
     
     
         24 . The computer program product as recited in  claim 22 , further comprising:
 alerting a user or a borehole system when the one or more borehole operation recommendations determines an alert threshold is exceeded.