Matrix bypass event production forecast deration tool

Abstract

Example embodiments of the present disclosure provide a new process (tool) to predict the production effects from MBEs. This tool can be based on an extensive study which risked the likelihood of MBE occurrence for patterns grouped by sand and completion type. In one aspect, a method includes determining a risk of Matrix Bypass Event (MBE) occurrence for a given sand type; assigning an MBE status to the given sand type based on the risk of MBE occurrence; and predicting an effect of the MBE status for the given sand type on production in a target production well.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method comprising:
 determining a risk of Matrix Bypass Event (MBE) occurrence for a given sand type;   assigning an MBE status to the given sand type based on the risk of MBE occurrence; and   predicting an effect of the MBE status for the given sand type on production in a target production well.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein determining the risk of MBE occurrence comprises:
 generating a random number;   comparing the risk of the MBE occurrence to the random number; and   assigning the MBE status based on a result of comparing the risk of the MBE occurrence to the random number.   
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 2 , further comprising:
 setting the MBE status to no MBE occurred if the random number is greater than the risk of the MBE occurrence; and   setting the MBE status to MBE occurred if the random number is less than the risk of the MBE occurrence.   
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 repeating the determining and the assigning for all sand types and all years of interest to yield an MBE risk schedule; and   predicting the effect of the MBE status for the given sand type using the MBE risk schedule.   
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein predicting the effect of the MBE status comprises:
 adjusting producer capacity for the target well production based on the MBE status to yield an adjusted producer capacity; and   generating a deration curve for the target production well based on the adjusted producer capacity.   
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 5 , wherein adjusting the producer capacity includes one of reducing the producer capacity by a fixed threshold or based on a multiplier corresponding to a remediation efficiency of the given sand type. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 6 , further comprising:
 outputting the deration curve on a terminal.   
     
     
         8 . A system comprising:
 one or more memories having computer-readable instructions stored therein; and   one or more processors configured to execute the computer-readable instructions to:
 determine a risk of Matrix Bypass Event (MBE) occurrence for a given sand type; 
 assign an MBE status to the given sand type based on the risk of MBE occurrence; and 
 predict an effect of the MBE status for the given sand type on production in a target production well. 
   
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the one or more processors are configured to execute the computer-readable instructions to determine the risk of MBE occurrence by:
 generating a random number;   comparing the risk of the MBE occurrence to the random number; and   assigning the MBE status based on a result of comparing the risk of the MBE occurrence to the random number.   
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 9 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to execute the computer-readable instructions to:
 set the MBE status to no MBE occurred if the random number is greater than the risk of the MBE occurrence; and   set the MBE status to MBE occurred if the random number is less than the risk of the MBE occurrence.   
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to execute the computer-readable instructions to:
 repeat determining and assigning processes for all sand types and all years of interest to yield an MBE risk schedule; and   predict the effect of the MBE status for the given sand type using the MBE risk schedule.   
     
     
         12 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the one or more processors are configured to execute the computer-readable instructions to predict the effect of the MBE status by:
 adjusting producer capacity for the target well production based on the MBE status to yield an adjusted producer capacity; and   generating a deration curve for the target production well based on the adjusted producer capacity.   
     
     
         13 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the one or more processors are configured to execute the computer-readable instructions to adjust the producer capacity by one of reducing the producer capacity by a fixed threshold or based on a multiplier corresponding to a remediation efficiency of the given sand type. 
     
     
         14 . The system of  claim 13 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to execute the computer-readable instructions to output the deration curve on a terminal. 
     
     
         15 . One or more non-transitory computer-readable media comprising computer-readable instructions, which when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to:
 determine a risk of Matrix Bypass Event (MBE) occurrence for a given sand type;   assign an MBE status to the given sand type based on the risk of MBE occurrence; and   predict an effect of the MBE status for the given sand type on production in a target production well.   
     
     
         16 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of  claim 15 , wherein the execution of the computer-readable instructions, cause the one or more processors to determine the risk of MBE occurrence by:
 generating a random number;   comparing the risk of the MBE occurrence to the random number; and   assigning the MBE status based on a result of comparing the risk of the MBE occurrence to the random number.   
     
     
         17 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of  claim 16 , wherein the execution of the computer-readable instructions, cause the one or more processors to:
 set the MBE status to no MBE occurred if the random number is greater than the risk of the MBE occurrence; and   set the MBE status to MBE occurred if the random number is less than the risk of the MBE occurrence.   
     
     
         18 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of  claim 15 , wherein the execution of the computer-readable instructions, cause the one or more processors to:
 repeat determining and assigning processes for all sand types and all years of interest to yield an MBE risk schedule; and   predict the effect of the MBE status for the given sand type using the MBE risk schedule.   
     
     
         19 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of  claim 15 , wherein the execution of the computer-readable instructions, cause the one or more processors to predict the effect of the MBE status by:
 adjusting producer capacity for the target well production based on the MBE status to yield an adjusted producer capacity; and   generating a deration curve for the target production well based on the adjusted producer capacity.   
     
     
         20 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of  claim 19 , wherein the execution of the computer-readable instructions, cause the one or more processors to adjust the producer capacity by one of reducing the producer capacity by a fixed threshold or based on a multiplier corresponding to a remediation efficiency of the given sand type.