Methods and apparatus to incorporate saturation effects into marketing mix models

Abstract

Methods and apparatus to incorporate saturation effects into marketing mix models are disclosed. An example apparatus includes means for converting adstock data associated with an advertising campaign into effective reached realized (ERR) data based on a first saturation curve, the adstock data corresponding to adstocked gross rating points generated from marketing mix input data. The apparatus further including means for performing regression analysis to: identify the first saturation curve from among a plurality of plausible curves based on a fit of different ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data, the first saturation curve to define a relationship indicative of saturation effects of the advertising campaign on a target audience of the advertising campaign; and determine an impact of the advertising campaign on sales during a period of interest based on a regression analysis of the ERR data relative to sales data.

1 . An audience measurement computing system comprising:
 at least one processor;   memory storing computer executable instructions that, upon execution by the at least one processor, cause the audience measurement computing system to:
 obtain marketing mix input data associated with an advertising campaign, the marketing mix input data including at least sales data; 
 select a first saturation curve from among a plurality of plausible curves based on fitting multiple ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data, the selected first saturation curve indicative of saturation effects of the advertising campaign on a target audience of the advertising campaign; 
 generate adstocked gross ratings points from the marketing mix input data; 
 determine effective reach realized for the advertising campaign based on the selected first saturation curve and the adstocked gross ratings points; and 
 determine an impact of the advertising campaign on sales during a period of interest based on a regression analysis of the determined effective reach realized relative to the sales data included in the marketing mix input data. 
   
     
     
         2 . The audience measurement computing system of  claim 1 , wherein the effective reach realized is indicative of a percentage of the target audience exposed to the advertising campaign during the period of interest. 
     
     
         3 . The audience measurement computing system of  claim 1 , wherein the computer executable instructions further cause, upon execution by the at least one processor, the audience measurement computing system to calculate the plurality of plausible curves based on a range of plausible penetrations and a range of plausible effective frequencies, ones of the plausible curves corresponding to (a) ones of the plausible penetrations and (b) ones of the plausible effective frequencies. 
     
     
         4 . The audience measurement computing system of  claim 1 , wherein the first saturation curve is selected based on:
 comparing the fitting of the multiple ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data; and   determining the first saturation curve is a best-fitting one of the multiple ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data.   
     
     
         5 . The audience measurement computing system of  claim 1 , wherein the first saturation curve is selected based on:
 estimating a penetration and an effective frequency for the advertising campaign based on demographic information associated with the target audience; and   selecting the first saturation curve based on a correspondence between the estimated penetration and effective frequency for the advertising campaign and at least one previous advertising campaign.   
     
     
         6 . The audience measurement computing system of  claim 1 , wherein the computer executable instructions further cause, upon execution by the at least one processor, the audience measurement computing system to store the selected first saturation curve in association with the advertising campaign for subsequent model estimation. 
     
     
         7 . The audience measurement computing system of  claim 1 , wherein the marketing mix input data includes time-phased expenditures associated with the advertising campaign for each of multiple media delivery types. 
     
     
         8 . A method implemented by a computing system having at least one processor, the method comprising:
 obtaining marketing mix input data associated with an advertising campaign, the marketing mix input data including at least sales data;   selecting a first saturation curve from among a plurality of plausible curves based on fitting multiple ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data, the selected first saturation curve indicative of saturation effects of the advertising campaign on a target audience of the advertising campaign;   generating adstocked gross ratings points from the marketing mix input data;   determining effective reach realized for the advertising campaign based on the selected first saturation curve and the adstocked gross ratings points; and   determining an impact of the advertising campaign on sales during a period of interest based on a regression analysis of the determined effective reach realized relative to the sales data included in the marketing mix input data.   
     
     
         9 . The method of  claim 8 , wherein the effective reach realized is indicative of a percentage of the target audience exposed to the advertising campaign during the period of interest. 
     
     
         10 . The method of  claim 8 , further comprising calculating the plurality of plausible curves based on a range of plausible penetrations and a range of plausible effective frequencies, ones of the plausible curves corresponding to (a) ones of the plausible penetrations and (b) ones of the plausible effective frequencies. 
     
     
         11 . The method of  claim 8 , wherein selecting the first saturation curve includes:
 comparing the fitting of the multiple ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data; and   determining the first saturation curve is a best-fitting one of the multiple ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data.   
     
     
         12 . The method of  claim 8 , wherein selecting the first saturation curve includes:
 estimating a penetration and an effective frequency for the advertising campaign based on demographic information associated with the target audience; and   selecting the first saturation curve based on a correspondence between the estimated penetration and effective frequency for the advertising campaign and at least one previous advertising campaign.   
     
     
         13 . The method of  claim 8 , further comprising storing the selected first saturation curve in association with the advertising campaign for subsequent model estimation. 
     
     
         14 . A non-transitory computer readable storage medium having stored therein executable instructions that, upon execution by at least one processor, cause performance of operations comprising:
 obtaining marketing mix input data associated with an advertising campaign, the marketing mix input data including at least sales data;   selecting a first saturation curve from among a plurality of plausible curves based on fitting multiple ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data, the selected first saturation curve indicative of saturation effects of the advertising campaign on a target audience of the advertising campaign;   generating adstocked gross ratings points from the marketing mix input data;   determining effective reach realized for the advertising campaign based on the selected first saturation curve and the adstocked gross ratings points; and   determining an impact of the advertising campaign on sales during a period of interest based on a regression analysis of the determined effective reach realized relative to the sales data included in the marketing mix input data.   
     
     
         15 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 14 , wherein the effective reach realized is indicative of a percentage of the target audience exposed to the advertising campaign during the period of interest. 
     
     
         16 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 14 , wherein the operations further include calculating the plurality of plausible curves based on a range of plausible penetrations and a range of plausible effective frequencies, ones of the plausible curves corresponding to (a) ones of the plausible penetrations and (b) ones of the plausible effective frequencies. 
     
     
         17 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 14 , wherein selecting the first saturation curve includes:
 comparing the fitting of the multiple ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data; and   determining the first saturation curve is a best-fitting one of the multiple ones of the plurality of plausible curves to the marketing mix input data.   
     
     
         18 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 14 , wherein selecting the first saturation curve includes:
 estimating a penetration and an effective frequency for the advertising campaign based on demographic information associated with the target audience; and   selecting the first saturation curve based on a correspondence between the estimated penetration and effective frequency for the advertising campaign and at least one previous advertising campaign.   
     
     
         19 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 14 , wherein the operations further include storing the selected first saturation curve in association with the advertising campaign for subsequent model estimation. 
     
     
         20 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 14 , wherein the marketing mix input data includes time-phased expenditures associated with the advertising campaign for each of multiple media delivery types.