Prediction method, prediction device, and prediction program

Abstract

A prediction method of performing heat source demand prediction in a space having a predetermined air conditioning control region, includes predicting a required heat quantity in the air conditioning control region by using a predetermined parameter related to a surrounding environment of the air conditioning control region and a setting value of an air conditioner set in the air conditioning control region as inputs, and predicting a heat source demand of the entire space from the predicted required heat quantity for each air conditioning control region.

1 . A prediction method of performing heat source demand prediction in a space having a predetermined air conditioning control region, the prediction method causing a computer to execute processes of:
 predicting a required heat quantity in the air conditioning control region by using a predetermined parameter related to a surrounding environment of the air conditioning control region and a setting value of an air conditioner set in the air conditioning control region as inputs; and   predicting a heat source demand of the entire space from the predicted required heat quantity for each air conditioning control region.   
     
     
         2 . The prediction method according to  claim 1 , wherein 
 the required heat quantity is predicted by using at least one of weather data related to a periphery of the air conditioning control region and people flow data related to a person present in the air conditioning control region as the predetermined parameter, the weather data and the people flow data being time-considered data in which an influence of a change in time is considered.   
     
     
         3 . The prediction method according to  claim 2 , wherein
 a predetermined calculated value of the time-considered data for each air conditioning control region is obtained by using a maximum time that is a consideration target before a prediction target time and a time width set between the maximum time and the prediction target time, learned in advance for the time-considered data, and   the required heat quantity is predicted by using the predetermined calculated value and the setting value as inputs.   
     
     
         4 . The prediction method according to  claim 3 , wherein
 the maximum time and the time width are learned according to a predetermined estimation method by using a setting time for the maximum time and a setting time for the time width that are determined for each piece of the time-considered data.   
     
     
         5 . The prediction method according to  claim 4 , wherein
 the maximum time and the time width are learned by, as the estimation method, performing cross verification for each combination of the setting time for the maximum time and the setting time for the time width, and estimating the maximum time and the time width that are optimal among the combinations.   
     
     
         6 . The prediction method according to  claim 3 , wherein
 the required heat quantity is a required heat quantity for each of two or more types of use energy,   the predetermined calculated value of the time-considered data is obtained for each type of the use energy by using the maximum time and the time width obtained for the use energy for each air conditioning control region, and   a heat source demand of the entire space is predicted by predicting the required heat quantity by using the predetermined calculated value for each type of the use energy and the setting values as inputs for each air conditioning control region.   
     
     
         7 . A prediction device that performs heat source demand prediction in a space having a predetermined air conditioning control region, the prediction device comprising:
 a demand prediction unit that predicts a required heat quantity in the air conditioning control region by using a predetermined parameter related to a surrounding environment of the air conditioning control region and a setting value of an air conditioner set in the air conditioning control region as inputs, and predicts a heat source demand of the entire space from the predicted required heat quantity for each air conditioning control region.   
     
     
         8 . A non-transitory, computer-readable storage medium storing a prediction program for performing heat source demand prediction in a space having a predetermined air conditioning control region, the prediction program causing a computer to execute processes of:
 predicting a required heat quantity in the air conditioning control region by using a predetermined parameter related to a surrounding environment of the air conditioning control region and a setting value of an air conditioner set in the air conditioning control region as inputs; and   predicting a heat source demand of the entire space from the predicted required heat quantity for each air conditioning control region.