Forecasting national crop yield during the growing season using weather indices

Abstract

A method for determining national crop yields during a growing season is accomplished using a server computer system that receives observed agricultural data records for a specific geo-location at a specific time. The server calculates weather index values from the agricultural data records that represent crop stress on plants. Geo-specific weather indices are generated from the weather index values, which then are aggregated to generate aggregated weather index data series. Representative features are selected from each aggregated weather index data series to create a covariate matrix for each geographic area. Crop yield for the geographic area is calculated using a linear regression model based on the covariate matrix for the specific geographic area. The server determines a national crop yield for the specific year as a sum of the crop yields for the specific geographic areas nationally adjusted using national yield adjustment instructions.

1 .- 20 . (canceled) 
     
     
         21 . A method comprising:
 receiving digital data comprising one or more agricultural data records that represent observed agricultural data points for specific geo-locations at specific times;   calculating weather index values from the one or more agricultural data records to generate one or more geo-specific weather indices for the specific geo-locations over specified periods of time;   aggregating the one or more geo-specific weather indices to generate one or more aggregated weather indices that represent specific geographic areas, from a subset of the one or more geo-specific weather indices;   selecting representative features from the one or more aggregated weather indices and storing in computer memory, for each specific geographic area, the representative features selected from the one or more aggregated weather indices;   determining a geographic area specific crop yield for a specific year by calculating the geographic area specific crop yield from the representative features selected from the one or more aggregated weather indices;   determining a geographic region crop yield for a geographic region that includes the specific geographic areas, for the specific year, by calculating a sum of the geographic area specific crop yields for the specific year, adjusted for the geographic region as a whole; and   based on the geographic region crop yield for the specific year, modifying an agricultural procedure used for one or more fields;   wherein the method is performed by one or more computing devices.   
     
     
         22 . The method of  claim 21 , further comprising creating a covariate matrix that comprises the representative features. 
     
     
         23 . The method of  claim 22 , further comprising using the covariate matrix to calculate the geographic area specific crop yield. 
     
     
         24 . The method of  claim 21 , further comprising using a linear regression model to calculate the geographic area specific crop yield. 
     
     
         25 . The method of  claim 21 , further comprising obtaining, as the agricultural data records, field-specific time series data. 
     
     
         26 . The method of  claim 21 , further comprising calculating, as a geo-specific weather index of the geo-specific weather indices, a summation of periodic weather values that exceed a threshold during a specified time period. 
     
     
         27 . The method of  claim 21 , further comprising selecting, as a representative feature of the representative features, a median value of an aggregated weather index or a mean value of the aggregated weather index. 
     
     
         28 . The method of  claim 21 , further comprising determining a cutoff date for historical agricultural data; and determining a particular method for computing the geographic region crop yield based on the cutoff date. 
     
     
         29 . The method of  claim 21 , further comprising adjusting the geographic region crop yield by adjusting a weight associated with a geographic area specific crop yield. 
     
     
         30 . The method of  claim 21 , further comprising calculating a prediction interval associated with the geographic region crop yield, and modifying the agricultural procedure when the prediction interval satisfies a certainty threshold. 
     
     
         31 . One or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media comprising instructions which, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising:
 receiving digital data comprising one or more agricultural data records that represent observed agricultural data points for specific geo-locations at specific times;   calculating weather index values from the one or more agricultural data records to generate one or more geo-specific weather indices for the specific geo-locations over specified periods of time;   aggregating the one or more geo-specific weather indices to generate one or more aggregated weather indices that represent specific geographic areas, from a subset of the one or more geo-specific weather indices;   selecting representative features from the one or more aggregated weather indices and storing in computer memory, for each specific geographic area, the representative features selected from the one or more aggregated weather indices;   determining a geographic area specific crop yield for a specific year by calculating the geographic area specific crop yield from the representative features selected from the one or more aggregated weather indices;   determining a geographic region crop yield for a geographic region that includes the specific geographic areas, for the specific year, by calculating a sum of the geographic area specific crop yields for the specific year, adjusted for the geographic region as a whole; and   based on the geographic region crop yield for the specific year, modifying an agricultural procedure used for one or more fields.   
     
     
         32 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media of  claim 31 , wherein the instructions further cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising creating a covariate matrix that comprises the representative features. 
     
     
         33 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media of  claim 32 , wherein the instructions further cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising using the covariate matrix to calculate the geographic area specific crop yield. 
     
     
         34 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media of  claim 31 , wherein the instructions further cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising using a linear regression model to calculate the geographic area specific crop yield. 
     
     
         35 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media of  claim 31 , wherein the instructions further cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising obtaining, as the agricultural data records, field-specific time series data. 
     
     
         36 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media of  claim 31 , wherein the instructions further cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising calculating, as a geo-specific weather index of the geo-specific weather indices, a summation of periodic weather values that exceed a threshold during a specified time period. 
     
     
         37 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media of  claim 31 , wherein the instructions further cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising selecting, as a representative feature of the representative features, a median value of an aggregated weather index or a mean value of the aggregated weather index. 
     
     
         38 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media of  claim 31 , wherein the instructions further cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising, further comprising determining a cutoff date for historical agricultural data; and determining a particular method for computing the geographic region crop yield based on the cutoff date. 
     
     
         39 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media of  claim 31 , wherein the instructions further cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising, further comprising adjusting the geographic region crop yield by adjusting a weight associated with a geographic area specific crop yield. 
     
     
         40 . The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media of  claim 31 , wherein the instructions further cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising calculating a prediction interval associated with the geographic region crop yield, and modifying the agricultural procedure when the prediction interval satisfies a certainty threshold.