Data driven methods and systems for what if analysis

Abstract

Techniques are described for applying what-f analytics to simulate performance of computing resources in cloud and other computing environments. In one or more embodiments, a plurality of time-series datasets are received including time-series datasets representing a plurality of demands on a resource and datasets representing performance metrics for a resource. Based on the datasets at least one demand propagation model and at least one resource prediction model are trained. Responsive to receiving an adjustment to a first set of one or more values associated with a first demand: (a) a second adjustment is generated for a second set of one or more values associated with a second demand; and (b) a third adjustment is generated for a third set of one or more values that is associated with the resource performance metric.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method comprising:
 receiving a request to perform a what-if simulation for one or more performance metrics of a system based on a first change to a first demand on one or more system resources;   responsive to receiving the request to perform the what-if simulation, generating a first prediction of at least a second change to a second demand on the one or more system resources; and   based at least on the first change to the first demand and the second change to the second demand, generating a second prediction of a third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the first change is a change to at least one historical value that corresponds to a measurement of the first demand on the one or more system resources. 
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein generating the second prediction of the third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system comprises predicting a change to at least one historical value that corresponds to a measurement of the one or more performance metrics of the system. 
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the second prediction of the third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system comprises a change to at least one future value that corresponds to a forecast of the one or more performance metrics of the system. 
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the second prediction of the third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system comprises a change to an uncertainty interval in a forecast of the one or more performance metrics of the system. 
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising presenting a historical or forecast simulation based on at least the third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein at least one of the first prediction or the second prediction is generated based on one or more seasonal patterns. 
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the request is received from a tenant of a cloud service; and wherein responsive to the request the cloud service presents, to the tenant, or stores, at a location accessible to the tenant, a result of the what-if simulation. 
     
     
         9 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising configuring one or more system resources based on a result of the what-if simulation. 
     
     
         10 . One or more non-transitory computer-readable media storing instructions that, when executed by one or more hardware processors, cause:
 receiving a request to perform a what-if simulation for one or more performance metrics of a system based on a first change to a first demand on one or more system resources;   responsive to receiving the request to perform the what-if simulation, generating a first prediction of at least a second change to a second demand on the one or more system resources; and   based at least on the first change to the first demand and the second change to the second demand, generating a second prediction of a third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system.   
     
     
         11 . The media of  claim 10 , wherein the first change is a change to at least one historical value that corresponds to a measurement of the first demand on the one or more system resources. 
     
     
         12 . The media of  claim 10 , wherein generating the second prediction of the third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system comprises predicting a change to at least one historical value that corresponds to a measurement of the one or more performance metrics of the system. 
     
     
         13 . The media of  claim 10 , wherein the second prediction of the third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system comprises a change to at least one future value that corresponds to a forecast of the one or more performance metrics of the system. 
     
     
         14 . The media of  claim 10 , wherein the second prediction of the third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system comprises a change to an uncertainty interval in a forecast of the one or more performance metrics of the system. 
     
     
         15 . The media of  claim 10 , wherein the instructions further cause presenting a historical or forecast simulation based on at least the third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system. 
     
     
         16 . The media of  claim 10 , wherein at least one of the first prediction or the second prediction is generated based on one or more seasonal patterns. 
     
     
         17 . The media of  claim 10 , wherein the request is received from a tenant of a cloud service; and wherein responsive to the request the cloud service presents, to the tenant, or stores, at a location accessible to the tenant, a result of the what-if simulation. 
     
     
         18 . The media of  claim 10 , further comprising configuring one or more system resources based on a result of the what-if simulation. 
     
     
         19 . A computing system comprising:
 one or more hardware processors;   one or more non-transitory computer-readable media storing instructions that, when executed by the one or more hardware processors, cause:
 receiving a request to perform a what-if simulation for one or more performance metrics of a system based on a first change to a first demand on one or more system resources; 
 responsive to receiving the request to perform the what-if simulation, generating a first prediction of at least a second change to a second demand on the one or more system resources; and 
 based at least on the first change to the first demand and the second change to the second demand, generating a second prediction of a third change to the one or more performance metrics of the system. 
   
     
     
         20 . The computing system of  claim 19 , wherein the first change is a change to at least one historical value that corresponds to a measurement of the first demand on the one or more system resources.