Method and system for predicting audience viewing behavior

Abstract

The present invention is directed to a method and system for predicting the behavior of an audience based on the biologically based responses of the audience to a presentation that provides a sensory stimulating experience and determining a measure of the level and pattern of engagement of that audience to the presentation. In particular, the invention is directed to a method and system for predicting whether an audience is likely to view a presentation in its entirety. In addition, the present invention may be used to determine the point at which an audience is likely to change their attention to an alternative sensory stimulating experience including fast forwarding through recorded content, changing the channel or leaving the room when viewing live content, or otherwise redirecting their engagement from the sensory stimulating experience.

1 . (canceled) 
     
     
         2 . An apparatus comprising:
 a biometric sensor to measure a first biometric response of an audience member while exposed to media during a time period, the time period divided into time slots;   a second biometric sensor to measure a second biometric response of the audience member while exposed to the media during the time period, the second biometric response different than the first biometric response; and   a processor to:
 determine a synchrony score for a time slot of the time slots; 
 determine an intensity score for the time slot by subtracting a first intensity value of the first biometric response occurring during the time slot from a second intensity value of the second biometric response occurring during the time slot; 
 determine an engagement score for the time slot based on the synchrony score and the intensity score; and 
 predict viewership based on the engagement score. 
   
     
     
         3 . The apparatus of  claim 2 , wherein the first biometric response is a respiration rate, a respiration state, or a body movement. 
     
     
         4 . The apparatus of  claim 3 , wherein the second biometric response is a heart rate. 
     
     
         5 . The apparatus of  claim 2 , wherein the first biometric response is indicative of boredom or distraction. 
     
     
         6 . The apparatus of  claim 2 , wherein the processor is to weigh the first intensity value and the second intensity value based on a type of the media. 
     
     
         7 . The apparatus of  claim 6 , wherein the second biometric response is based on skin conductance, and wherein the processor is to weigh the second intensity value greater than the first intensity value. 
     
     
         8 . The apparatus of  claim 2 , wherein the processor is to determine the engagement score by adding the synchrony score and the intensity score. 
     
     
         9 . The apparatus of  claim 2 , wherein the synchrony score represents a number of audience members having the same or similar biologically based response over the time slot. 
     
     
         10 . An apparatus comprising:
 a biometric sensor to measure a biometric response of an audience member while exposed to media during a time period, the time period divided into time slots; and   a processor to:
 identify a rise in the biometric response occurring over a rise-time; 
 determine an intensity score for the rise; 
 assign the intensity score for the rise to a time slot of the time slots in which at least half of the rise-time occurs; 
 determine a synchrony score for the time slot; 
 determine an engagement score for the time slot based on the intensity score and the synchrony score; and 
 predict viewership based on the engagement score. 
   
     
     
         11 . The apparatus of  claim 10 , wherein the processor is to:
 determine engagement scores for respective ones of the time slots based on the biometric response;   generate an engagement curve based on the engagement scores and the time period; and   determine a first negative buildup value for the media based on the engagement scores.   
     
     
         12 . The apparatus of  claim 11 , wherein the media is a first commercial, and wherein processor is to determine a second negative buildup value for a second commercial, the second negative buildup value being lower than the first negative buildup value. 
     
     
         13 . The apparatus of  claim 12 , wherein the processor is to determine an order of presentation of the second commercial before the first commercial based on the second commercial having a lower negative buildup value than the first commercial. 
     
     
         14 . The apparatus of  claim 11 , wherein the processor is to rank the media based on a comparison of the first negative buildup value to another negative buildup value of another media. 
     
     
         15 . The apparatus of  claim 11 , wherein the processor is to predict, based on the first negative buildup value, whether a viewer will watch the entirety of the media, the media being previously recorded. 
     
     
         16 . The apparatus of  claim 15 , wherein the processor is to predict whether the viewer will watch the entirety of the media by determining a likelihood that the viewer will fast-forward through the media. 
     
     
         17 . The apparatus of  claim 10 , wherein the processor is to:
 determine engagement scores for respective ones of the time slots based on the biometric response;   generate an engagement curve based on the engagement scores and the time period; and   determine a positive buildup value for the media based on the engagement scores.   
     
     
         18 . The apparatus of  claim 10 , wherein the biometric response includes a heart rate and electroencephalography (EEG). 
     
     
         19 . An apparatus comprising:
 means for measuring a biometric response of an audience member while exposed to media during a time period, the time period divided into time slots; and   means for processing the biometric response, the processing means to:
 determine intensity scores for respective ones of the time slots based on the biometric response; 
 determine synchrony scores for respective ones of the time slots based on the biometric response; 
 determine engagement scores for respective ones of the time slots based on the intensity values and the synchrony values for the respective ones of the time slots; and 
 predict viewership based on the engagement scores. 
   
     
     
         20 . The apparatus of  claim 19 , wherein the processing means is to determine, based on the engagement scores, a metric including at least one of negative buildup, positive buildup, average engagement score, or maximum engagement score. 
     
     
         21 . The apparatus of  claim 19 , further including means for outputting the media for presentation.