System and method for predicting a present state facility outcome value based on historical facility parameter/outcome values

Abstract

Systems and methods for predicting a present facility outcome based on historical facility outcomes. An example system may include a production facility with a production task and a controller. The controller may include a facility description circuit to interpret historical facility parameter values and corresponding outcomes. The controller may further include a facility prediction circuit with an adaptive learning system to train a facility production predictor in response to the historical facility parameter values and corresponding outcome values. The facility description circuit may also interpret present state facility parameter values and the facility prediction circuit operates the adaptive learning system to predict a present state facility outcome value in response to the present state facility parameter values. The adaptive learning system may determine input values related to outcome values, remove input values that are unpredictive of outcomes, and determine relationships between the input and output values.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A transaction-enabling system comprising:
 a production facility comprising a core task, wherein the core task comprises a production task;   a controller, comprising:   a facility description circuit structured to interpret a plurality of historical facility parameter values and a corresponding plurality of historical facility outcome values;   a facility prediction circuit structured to operate an adaptive learning system, wherein the adaptive learning system is configured to train a facility production predictor in response to the plurality of historical facility parameter values and the corresponding plurality of historical facility outcome values;   wherein the facility description circuit is further structured to interpret a plurality of present state facility parameter values;   wherein the facility prediction circuit is further structured to operate the adaptive learning system to predict a present state facility outcome value in response to the plurality of present state facility parameter values; and   wherein the adaptive learning system is structured to: determine input values that are related to outcome values, remove the input values that are consistently unpredictive of the outcome values, and determine relationships between the input values and the outcome values.   
     
     
         2 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises a facility production outcome. 
     
     
         3 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises a facility production outcome probability distribution. 
     
     
         4 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises at least one value selected from the values consisting of: a production volume description of the production task; a production quality description of the production task; a facility resource utilization description; an input resource utilization description; or a production timing description of the production task. 
     
     
         5 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the facility description circuit is further structured to interpret historical external data from at least one external data source, and wherein the adaptive learning system is further configured to train the facility production predictor in response to the historical external data. 
     
     
         6 . The system of  claim 5 , wherein the at least one external data source comprises at least one data source selected from the data sources consisting of: a social media data source; a behavioral data source; a spot market price for an energy source; or a forward market price for an energy source. 
     
     
         7 . The system of  claim 5 , wherein the facility description circuit is further structured to interpret present external data from the at least one external data source, and wherein the adaptive learning system is further configured to predict the present state facility outcome value in response to the present external data. 
     
     
         8 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the adaptive learning system is further structured to add the input values that are consistently predictive of the outcome values. 
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises a facility resource utilization description including at least one description selected from the group consisting of: a description of energy consumption for the production facility, a description of personnel utilization of the facility, a description of consumption of a secondary resource for the facility, a description of production tooling, or a description of facility asset consumption. 
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises a production volume description including at least one description selected from a group consisting of: a total production volume, a production volume relative to a target value, and/or a specific production volume. 
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 10 , wherein the specific production volume includes at least one of a volume produced per unit of resource input, a personnel time utilized, or a production tooling life utilization. 
     
     
         12 . A method, comprising:
 interpreting a plurality of historical facility parameter values and a corresponding plurality of historical facility outcome values;   operating an adaptive learning system, thereby training a facility production predictor in response to the plurality of historical facility parameter values and the corresponding plurality of historical facility outcome values;   interpreting a plurality of present state facility parameter values;   operating the adaptive learning system to predict a present state facility outcome value in response to the plurality of present state facility parameter values;   determining input values that are related to outcome values;   removing the input values that are consistently unpredictive of the outcome values; and   determining relationships between the input values and the outcome values.   
     
     
         13 . The method of  claim 12 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises a facility production outcome. 
     
     
         14 . The method of  claim 12 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises a facility production outcome probability distribution. 
     
     
         15 . The method of  claim 12 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises at least one value selected from the values consisting of: a production volume description of a production task; a production quality description of a production task; a facility resource utilization description; an input resource utilization description; and a production timing description of a production task. 
     
     
         16 . The method of  claim 12 , further comprising interpreting historical external data from at least one external data source, and operating the adaptive learning system to further train the facility production predictor in response to the historical external data. 
     
     
         17 . The method of  claim 16 , wherein the at least one external data source comprises at least one data source selected from the data sources consisting of: a social media data source; a behavioral data source; a spot market price for an energy source; and a forward market price for an energy source. 
     
     
         18 . The method of  claim 16 , further comprising interpreting present external data from the at least one external data source, and operating the adaptive learning system to predict the present state facility outcome value further in response to the present external data. 
     
     
         19 . The method of  claim 12 , further comprising adding the input values that are consistently predictive of the outcome values. 
     
     
         20 . The method of  claim 12 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises a facility resource utilization description. 
     
     
         21 . The method of  claim 20 , wherein the facility resource utilization description includes at least one description selected from the group consisting of: a description of energy consumption for the production facility, a description of personnel utilization of the facility, a description of consumption of a secondary resource for the facility, a description of production tooling, or a description of facility asset consumption. 
     
     
         22 . The method of  claim 12 , wherein the present state facility outcome value comprises a production volume description. 
     
     
         23 . The method of  claim 22 , wherein the production volume description includes at least one description selected from a group consisting of: a total production volume, a production volume relative to a target value, and/or a specific production volume. 
     
     
         24 . The method of  claim 23 , wherein the specific production volume comprises at least one of a volume produced per unit of resource input, a personnel time utilized, or a production tooling life utilization.