Duty block time control via statistical analysis

Abstract

Method and apparatus for statistically determining buffers for time variances for scheduled operations. Buffers for a particular operation can be based on a statistical analysis of past instances of the specific operation, and a buffer can be applied based on a selected statistical confidence interval. The statistical analysis can include determining a Gumbel distribution for time variances for a particular operation. Once buffers have been determined for the various operations, itineraries of operations can be prepared such that the scheduled times plus the buffer times for the operations in an itinerary do not exceed personnel limits of the personnel who may be assigned to the itineraries.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A computer-implemented method, the method comprising:
 determining statistical distributions for time variances of various operations based on time variances during past instances of the various operations, wherein the time variances are variances from scheduled times for the various operations;   determining a plurality of time variance buffers associated with the various operations based on statistical distributions associated with the various operations, each of the plurality of time variance buffers associated with at least one confidence interval of a plurality of confidence intervals;   determining a priority for an operation of the various operations;   selecting one or more time variance buffers, of the plurality of time variance buffers, for the various operations, based on the determined priority and the plurality of confidence interval s;   identifying, by operation of one or more computer processors, a combination of operations from among the various operations wherein a sum of scheduled times for the combination of operations and the selected time variance buffers for the combination of operations do not exceed a personal time limit of personnel; and.   assigning the identified combination of operations to an itinerary.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the scheduled times for the various operations include scheduled block times for the various operations, and wherein the time variances include block time variances for the various operations. 
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 storing the plurality time variance buffers in a computer database, wherein at least some of the time variance buffers are stored in aggregated form in the computer database; and   retrieving the aggregated time variance buffers from the computer database, wherein selecting one or more time variance buffers, of the plurality of time variance buffers, for the various operations, is further based on the retrieved aggregated time variance buffers.   
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 3 , wherein each of the aggregated time variance buffers is identified by an aggregation number, and wherein the aggregation number is used as a tag when retrieving the respective aggregated time variance buffer from the computer database. 
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the various operations are flight segments of a commercial aircraft, wherein the combination of operations is a combination of flight segments, wherein the personnel are pilots, wherein the time variances are block time variances, and wherein the personal time limit is an available block time. 
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the various operations are flight segments of a commercial aircraft, wherein the combination of operations is a combination of flight segments, wherein the personnel are pilots, wherein the time variances are arrival time variances, and wherein the personal time limit is a predicted time for a pilot assigned to the itinerary to run out of duty time. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein each of the plurality of time variance buffers is associated with a single confidence interval. 
     
     
         8 . A system, comprising:
 a processor; and   a memory containing a program that, when executed on the processor, performs a task, the task comprising
 determining statistical distributions for time variances of various operations based on time variances during past instances of the various operations, wherein the time variances are variances from scheduled times for the various operations; 
 determining a plurality of time variance buffers associated with the various operations based on statistical distributions associated with the various operations, each of the plurality of time variance buffers associated with at least one confidence interval of a plurality of confidence intervals; 
 determining a priority for an operation of the various operations; 
 selecting one or more time variance buffers, of the plurality of time variance buffers, for the various operations, based on the determined priority and the plurality of confidence intervals; 
 identifying, by operation of one or more computer processors, a combination of operations from among the various operations wherein a sum of scheduled times for the combination of operations and the selected time variance buffers for the combination of operations do not exceed a personal time limit of personnel; and 
 assigning the identified combination of operations to an itinerary. 
   
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the scheduled times for the various operations include scheduled block times for the various operations, and wherein the time variances include block time variances for the various operations. 
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 8 , the task further comprising:
 storing the plurality time variance buffers in a computer database, wherein at least some of the time variance buffers are stored in aggregated form in the computer database; and   retrieving the aggregated time variance buffers from the computer database, wherein selecting one or more time variance buffers, of the plurality of time variance buffers, for the various operations, is further based on the retrieved aggregated time variance buffers.   
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 10 , wherein each of the aggregated time variance buffers is identified by an aggregation number, and wherein the aggregation number is used as a tag when retrieving the respective aggregated time variance buffer from the computer database. 
     
     
         12 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the various operations are flight segments of a commercial aircraft, wherein the combination of operations is a combination of flight segments, wherein the personnel are pilots, wherein the time variances are block time variances, and wherein the personal time limit is an available block time. 
     
     
         13 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the various operations are flight segments of a commercial aircraft, wherein the combination of operations is a combination of flight segments, wherein the personnel are pilots, wherein the time variances are arrival time variances, and wherein the personal time limit is a predicted time for a pilot assigned to the itinerary to run out of duty time. 
     
     
         14 . A computer program product, comprising:
 a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing code for execution by a processor, wherein the code, when executed by a processor. performs a task, the task comprising:
 determining statistical distributions for time variances of various operations based on time variances during past instances of the various operations, wherein the time variances are variances from scheduled times for the various operations; 
 determining a plurality of time variance buffers associated with the various operations based on statistical distributions associated with the various operations, each of the plurality of time variance buffers associated with at least one confidence interval of a plurality of confidence intervals; 
 determining a priority for an operation of the various operations; 
 selecting one or more time variance buffers, of the plurality of time variance buffers, for the various operations, based on the determined priority and the plurality of confidence intervals; 
 identifying, by operation of one or more computer processors, a combination of operations from among the various operations wherein a sum of scheduled times for the combination of operations and the selected time variance buffers for the combination of operations do not exceed a personal time limit of personnel; and 
 assigning the identified combination of operations to an itinerary. 
   
     
     
         15 . The computer program product of  claim 14 , wherein the scheduled times for the various operations include scheduled block times for the various operations, and wherein the time variances include block time variances for the various operations. 
     
     
         16 . The computer program product of  claim 14 , the task further comprising:
 storing the plurality time variance buffers in a computer database, wherein at least some of the time variance buffers are stored in aggregated form in the computer database; and   retrieving the aggregated time variance buffers from the computer database, wherein selecting one or more time variance buffers, of the plurality of time variance buffers, for the various operations, is further based on the retrieved aggregated time variance buffers.   
     
     
         17 . The computer program product of  claim 16 , wherein each of the aggregated time variance buffers is identified by an aggregation number, and wherein the aggregation number is used as a tag when retrieving the respective aggregated time variance buffer from the computer database. 
     
     
         18 . The computer program product of  claim 14 , wherein the various operations are flight segments of a commercial aircraft, wherein the combination of operations is a combination of flight segments, wherein the personnel are pilots, wherein the time variances are block time variances, and wherein the personal time limit is an available block time. 
     
     
         19 . The computer program product of  claim 14 , wherein the various operations are flight segments of a commercial aircraft, wherein the combination of operations is a combination of flight segments, wherein the personnel are pilots, wherein the time variances are arrival time variances, and wherein the personal time limit is a predicted time for a pilot assigned to the itinerary to run out of duty time. 
     
     
         20 . The computer program product of  claim 14 , wherein each of the plurality of time variance buffers is associated with a single confidence interval.