Systems and methods for determining costs of vehicle repairs and times to major repairs

Abstract

Systems, methods and computer program products for determining costs of vehicle repairs and times to major repairs. In one embodiment, a system includes a computer processor, a data storage device, and an output device. The processor receives information from a user identifying a vehicle of interest. The processor retrieves repair data items that have characteristics common to the vehicle of interest from a database stored in the data storage device. The processor determines repairs that are expected to be necessary for the vehicle of interest based on the retrieved repair data items, and determines the costs associated with the identified expected repairs. The processor provides output to the user indicating the repair costs and/or the times at which the repairs are likely to be necessary. The output may be in graphical and/or numerical form.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method, comprising:
 receiving, by a server computer from a user device, vehicle information identifying a user-specified vehicle;   retrieving, by the server computer, repair data items from a repair database, wherein the repair data items are associated with vehicles having same or similar vehicle characteristics as the user-specified vehicle;   determining, by the server computer based on the repair data items retrieved from the repair database, expected repairs for the user-specified vehicle;   determining, by the server computer based on the expected repairs determined by the server computer for the user-specified vehicle and utilizing stored repair information associated with the repair data items retrieved from the repair database, costs associated with the expected repairs on the user-specified vehicle in a geographical area; and   providing, by the server computer, an output to the user device, wherein the output comprises a visual presentation indicative of a likelihood of occurrence of a major repair as a function of time relative, cumulatively, to likelihoods associated with individual repairs of the expected repairs on the user-specified vehicle in the geographical area, wherein the visual presentation further indicates a time-to-major-repair for the user-specified vehicle.   
     
     
         2 . The method according to  claim 1 , wherein the time-to-major-repair identifies, in the visual presentation, a point or range in time at which the likelihood of occurrence of the major repair begins to exceed a threshold percentage or value. 
     
     
         3 . The method according to  claim 1 , wherein the major repair is a first major repair of a plurality of major repairs determined by the server computer for the user-specified vehicle, wherein each major repair of the plurality of major repairs has an associated repair cost that meets or exceeds a predetermined percentage of a value of the user-specified vehicle. 
     
     
         4 . The method according to  claim 1 , further comprising:
 binning vehicles by year-make-model (YMM) or YMM-and-mileage-per-year (YMMm);   determining a total number of vehicles serviced over a duration by YMM or YMMm;   estimating a total number of vehicles operating over the duration by YMM or YMMm;   determining a coverage index based on a ratio of the total number of vehicles serviced to the total number of vehicles operating over the duration;   determining a factor of unreported self-servicing for each individual repair item in the repair database; and   estimating coverage of vehicle repairs stored in the repair database utilizing the coverage index and the factor of unreported self-servicing.   
     
     
         5 . The method according to  claim 4 , further comprising:
 determining a number of repairs per vehicle stored in the repair database, the number of repairs including routine maintenance and unscheduled repairs, wherein determining a number of repairs further comprises:
 constructing a bin of vehicles that share same or similar vehicle attributes; 
 determining a frequency of a repair relative to the bin of vehicles; and 
 scaling the frequency by the coverage of vehicle repairs stored in the repair database. 
   
     
     
         6 . The method according to  claim 1 , further comprising:
 determining historical average repair costs per repair type for repairs associated with vehicles with mileages similar to a mileage of the user-specified vehicle;   determining an average annual maintenance inflation rate factor utilizing the historical average repair costs;   determining estimated repair costs at a vehicle level or at a vehicle-mileage level; and   storing the estimated repair costs in the repair database, wherein the stored repair information associated with the repair data items retrieved from the repair database comprises a set of the estimated repair costs.   
     
     
         7 . The method according to  claim 6 , further comprising:
 adjusting the estimated repair costs based on a monthly mileage associated with the user-specified vehicle, a characteristic or demographic associated with an owner of the user-specified vehicle, or the geographical area.   
     
     
         8 . A system, comprising:
 a processor;   a non-transitory computer-readable medium; and   stored instructions translatable by the processor for:
 receiving, from a user device, vehicle information identifying a user-specified vehicle; 
 retrieving repair data items from a repair database, wherein the repair data items are associated with vehicles having same or similar vehicle characteristics as the user-specified vehicle; 
 determining, based on the repair data items retrieved from the repair database, expected repairs for the user-specified vehicle; 
 determining, based on the expected repairs determined for the user-specified vehicle and utilizing stored repair information associated with the repair data items retrieved from the repair database, costs associated with the expected repairs on the user-specified vehicle in a geographical area; and 
 providing an output to the user device, wherein the output comprises a visual presentation indicative of a likelihood of occurrence of a major repair as a function of time relative, cumulatively, to likelihoods associated with individual repairs of the expected repairs on the user-specified vehicle in the geographical area, wherein the visual presentation further indicates a time-to-major-repair for the user-specified vehicle. 
   
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the time-to-major-repair identifies, in the visual presentation, a point or range in time at which the likelihood of occurrence of the major repair begins to exceed a threshold percentage or value. 
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the major repair is a first major repair of a plurality of major repairs determined for the user-specified vehicle, wherein each major repair of the plurality of major repairs has an associated repair cost that meets or exceeds a predetermined percentage of a value of the user-specified vehicle. 
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the stored instructions are further translatable by the processor for:
 binning vehicles by year-make-model (YMM) or YMM-and-mileage-per-year (YMMm);   determining a total number of vehicles serviced over a duration by YMM or YMMm;   estimating a total number of vehicles operating over the duration by YMM or YMMm;   determining a coverage index based on a ratio of the total number of vehicles serviced to the total number of vehicles operating over the duration;   determining a factor of unreported self-servicing for each individual repair item in the repair database; and   estimating coverage of vehicle repairs stored in the repair database utilizing the coverage index and the factor of unreported self-servicing.   
     
     
         12 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein the stored instructions are further translatable by the processor for:
 determining a number of repairs per vehicle stored in the repair database, the number of repairs including routine maintenance and unscheduled repairs, wherein determining a number of repairs further comprises:
 constructing a bin of vehicles that share same or similar vehicle attributes; 
 determining a frequency of a repair relative to the bin of vehicles; and 
 scaling the frequency by the coverage of vehicle repairs stored in the repair database. 
   
     
     
         13 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the stored instructions are further translatable by the processor for:
 determining historical average repair costs per repair type for repairs associated with vehicles with mileages similar to a mileage of the user-specified vehicle;   determining an average annual maintenance inflation rate factor utilizing the historical average repair costs;   determining estimated repair costs at a vehicle level or at a vehicle-mileage level; and   storing the estimated repair costs in the repair database, wherein the stored repair information associated with the repair data items retrieved from the repair database comprises a set of the estimated repair costs.   
     
     
         14 . The system of  claim 13 , wherein the stored instructions are further translatable by the processor for:
 adjusting the estimated repair costs based on a monthly mileage associated with the user-specified vehicle, a characteristic or demographic associated with an owner of the user-specified vehicle, or the geographical area.   
     
     
         15 . A computer program product comprising a non-transitory computer-readable medium storing instructions translatable by a processor for:
 receiving, from a user device, vehicle information identifying a user-specified vehicle;   retrieving repair data items from a repair database, wherein the repair data items are associated with vehicles having same or similar vehicle characteristics as the user-specified vehicle;   determining, based on the repair data items retrieved from the repair database, expected repairs for the user-specified vehicle;   determining, based on the expected repairs determined for the user-specified vehicle and utilizing stored repair information associated with the repair data items retrieved from the repair database, costs associated with the expected repairs on the user-specified vehicle in a geographical area; and   providing an output to the user device, wherein the output comprises a visual presentation indicative of a likelihood of occurrence of a major repair as a function of time relative, cumulatively, to likelihoods associated with individual repairs of the expected repairs on the user-specified vehicle in the geographical area, wherein the visual presentation further indicates a time-to-major-repair for the user-specified vehicle.   
     
     
         16 . The computer program product of  claim 15 , wherein the time-to-major-repair identifies, in the visual presentation, a point or range in time at which the likelihood of occurrence of the major repair begins to exceed a threshold percentage or value. 
     
     
         17 . The computer program product of  claim 15 , wherein the instructions are further translatable by the processor for:
 binning vehicles by year-make-model (YMM) or YMM-and-mileage-per-year (YMMm);   determining a total number of vehicles serviced over a duration by YMM or YMMm;   estimating a total number of vehicles operating over the duration by YMM or YMMm;   determining a coverage index based on a ratio of the total number of vehicles serviced to the total number of vehicles operating over the duration;   determining a factor of unreported self-servicing for each individual repair item in the repair database; and   estimating coverage of vehicle repairs stored in the repair database utilizing the coverage index and the factor of unreported self-servicing.   
     
     
         18 . The computer program product of  claim 17 , wherein the instructions are further translatable by the processor for:
 determining a number of repairs per vehicle stored in the repair database, the number of repairs including routine maintenance and unscheduled repairs, wherein determining a number of repairs further comprises:
 constructing a bin of vehicles that share same or similar vehicle attributes; 
 determining a frequency of a repair relative to the bin of vehicles; and 
 scaling the frequency by the coverage of vehicle repairs stored in the repair database. 
   
     
     
         19 . The computer program product of  claim 15 , wherein the instructions are further translatable by the processor for:
 determining historical average repair costs per repair type for repairs associated with vehicles with mileages similar to a mileage of the user-specified vehicle;   determining an average annual maintenance inflation rate factor utilizing the historical average repair costs;   determining estimated repair costs at a vehicle level or at a vehicle-mileage level; and   storing the estimated repair costs in the repair database, wherein the stored repair information associated with the repair data items retrieved from the repair database comprises a set of the estimated repair costs.   
     
     
         20 . The computer program product of  claim 19 , wherein the stored instructions are further translatable by the processor for:
 adjusting the estimated repair costs based on a monthly mileage associated with the user-specified vehicle, a characteristic or demographic associated with an owner of the user-specified vehicle, or the geographical area.