Method and system for analyzing and predicting bidding of electric power generation

Abstract

In a method and system for analyzing and predicting bidding of electric power generation, bid data is collected for a selected region. The bid data is preprocessed to decode the identity of the bidding entities and/or to remove erroneous or noisy data. External information, such as fuel prices, weather data, and/or generator outage data, is also collected. A bid prediction model is generated for one or more of the bidding entities from the bid data and the external information. External information is subsequently received, and the bid prediction model is applied to that current external information to predict future bids for one or more of the bidding entities. The predicted future bids are then reported.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method for predicting future bids of one or more bidding entities in an electric power marketplace, comprising the steps of:
 collecting bid data for the one or more bidding entities in a selected region;   collecting external information relevant to the bid data;   generating a bid prediction model for the one or more bidding entities in the region from the bid data and the external information relevant to the bid data, and storing the bid prediction model in a memory component of a computer;   subsequently receiving external information and applying the bid prediction model, as stored in the memory component of the computer, to the external information to predict future bids for the one or more bidding entities; and   reporting the predicted future bids to a market participant.   
     
     
         2 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , and further comprising the step of pre-processing the bid data to decode the identity of each of the one or more bidding entities; 
     
     
         3 . The method as recited in  claim 2 , in which the step of pre-processing the bid data further includes removal of erroneous data. 
     
     
         4 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , and further comprising the step of normalizing the bid data across the bidding entities in the region. 
     
     
         5 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein the external information is fuel prices. 
     
     
         6 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein the external information is weather information. 
     
     
         7 . The method as recited in  claim 6 , wherein the weather information includes temperature readings. 
     
     
         8 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , wherein the external information is outage information. 
     
     
         9 . A computer-based method for predicting future bids of one or more bidding entities in an electric power marketplace, comprising the steps of:
 collecting bid data for the one or more bidding entities in a selected region, and storing that bid data in a memory component of a computer;   using the computer to process the bid data to decode the identity of the one or more bidding entities;   collecting external information relevant to the bid data, and storing that external information in the memory component of the computer;   using the computer to generate a bid prediction model for the one or more bidding entities in the region from the bid data and the external information relevant to the bid data, and storing the bid prediction model in the memory component of the computer;   subsequently receiving external information, and then using the computer to apply the bid prediction model to the external information to predict future bids for the one or more bidding entities; and   reporting the predicted future bids to a market participant.   
     
     
         10 . A system for predicting future bids of one or more bidding entities in an electric power marketplace, comprising:
 a bid data receiving module for collecting and receiving bid data for the one or more bidding entities, which is stored in a database;   an information receiving module for collecting and receiving external information relevant to the bid data, which is stored in a database;   an analysis module for
 (i) generating a bid prediction model from the bid data and the external information received via the information receiving module, and 
 (ii) applying the bid prediction model against information that is subsequently received via the information receiving module to predict future bids for one or more bidding entities; and 
   a reporting module for reporting the future bids for one or more bidding entities to a market participant.   
     
     
         11 . The system as recited in  claim 10 , and further comprising a pre-processing module for decoding an identity of each of the bidding entities from the bid data. 
     
     
         12 . The system as recited in  claim 10 , wherein the external information is fuel prices. 
     
     
         13 . The system as recited in  claim 10 , wherein the external information is weather information. 
     
     
         14 . The system as recited in  claim 13 , wherein the weather information includes temperature readings. 
     
     
         15 . The system as recited in  claim 10 , wherein the external information is outage information.