System and method for predicting and avoiding network downtime

Abstract

This invention teaches how to use prediction software and algorithms to minimize the risk of failure, and to increase the likelihood of success of information technology (IT) and telecommunications system changes. The method identifies the systems, people, documents and other unanticipated consequences of system changes. The invention teaches how use of the prediction software and algorithms allow system administrators to find more advantageous ways and times to perform system changes.

I claim: 
     
         1 . A method stored in memory for storing data for computing a predicted risk of failure or predicted likelihood of success of a planned information technology (IT) or telecommunications system change and identifying the consequences of the change. 
     
     
         2 . A method of  claim 1  wherein the consequences of the change include the people that can be affected by the change. 
     
     
         3 . A method of  claim 1  wherein the consequences of the change include the systems that can be affected by the change. 
     
     
         4 . A method of  claim 1  wherein the consequences of the change include the documents that can be affected by the change. 
     
     
         5 . A method of  claim 1  wherein the consequences of the change include consequences unanticipated without using prediction software and algorithms. 
     
     
         6 . A method stored in memory for predicting the anticipated consequence of a planned information technology (IT) or telecommunications system change and avoiding the risk of failure and increasing the likelihood of success of that change. 
     
     
         7 . A method of  claim 6  wherein the computation for predicting the anticipated consequence of a planned change includes data on the impact of past changes. 
     
     
         8 . A method of  claim 6  wherein the risk of failure is avoided and the likelihood of success of the change are increased by computing the risk and success profile for another day, for a different time, by eliminating changes to be completed at the same time, or performing the change by a different person. 
     
     
         9 . A method of  claim 6  wherein the risk of failure is avoided and the likelihood of success of the change are increased by notifying the people identified from the prediction who may be affected by the change. 
     
     
         10 . A method of  claim 6  wherein the risk of failure is avoided and the likelihood of success of the change are increased by testing the systems identified from the prediction that may be affected by the change. 
     
     
         11 . A method stored in memory for storing data for computing a risk of failure or likelihood of success of a planned information technology (IT) or telecommunications system change, comprising:
 determining a Base Variable value and computing the sum of other variable values.   
     
     
         12 . A method of  claim 11  wherein the Base Value is based in part on the past success of prior system changes by the person identified to make the proposed change. 
     
     
         13 . A method of  claim 11  wherein the Base Value is based in part on the planning of the proposed change by the person identified to make the proposed change. 
     
     
         14 . A method of  claim 11  wherein the Base Value is based in part on the personality of the person identified to make the proposed change. 
     
     
         15 . A method of  claim 11  wherein the Base Value is the base propensity for an individual to fail or to succeed on an IT or telecommunications system change. 
     
     
         16 . A method of  claim 11  wherein the other variable values include socially derived data on what systems have been affected on past changes. 
     
     
         17 . A method of  claim 11  wherein the other variable values include socially derived data on which people have been affected on past changes. 
     
     
         18 . A method of  claim 11  wherein the other variable values include dependency mapping that identify other systems or other people that may be affected by a system change. 
     
     
         19 . A method of  claim 11  wherein the other variable values include dependency relationships that are determined by automated means. 
     
     
         20 . A method of  claim 11  wherein the computation includes research or statistical data on system changes.