Risk assessment for drilling and well completion operations

Abstract

A method, apparatus and system is provided for assessing risk for well completion, comprising: obtaining, using an input interface, a Below Rotary Table hours and a plurality of well-field parameters for one or more planned runs, determining, using at least one processor, one or more non-productive time values that correspond to the one or more planned runs based upon the well-field parameters, developing, using at least one processor, a non-productive time distribution and a Below Rotary Table distribution via one or more Monte Carlo trials; and outputting, using a graphic display, a risk transfer model results based on a total BRT hours from the Below Rotary Table and the non-productive time distribution produced from the one or more Monte Carlo trials.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method for assessing risk for well completion, comprising:
 obtaining, using an input interface, a Below Rotary Table hours and a plurality of well-field parameters for one or more planned runs;   determining, using at least one processor, one or more non-productive time values that correspond to the one or more planned runs based upon the well-field parameters;   developing, using at least one processor, a non-productive time distribution and a Below Rotary Table distribution via one or more Monte Carlo trials; and   outputting, using a graphic display, a risk transfer model results based on a total BRT hours from the Below Rotary Table and the non-productive time distribution produced from the one or more Monte Carlo trials.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the number of Monte Carlo trials is supplied by a user as an input parameter. 
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the non-productive time distribution is based on a non-productive time event frequency parameter and a non-productive time severity parameter associated with the one or more planned runs. 
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 3 , wherein the non-productive time event frequency parameter is a function of a bottom hole assembly configuration parameter. 
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 3 , wherein the non-productive time severity is a function of a hole size parameter, a depth parameter, a drilled length parameter, and a maximum dog leg parameter associated with the one or more planned runs. 
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 3 , wherein the non-productive time severity for each planned run is multiplied by a binary frequency function to compute the non-productive time distribution. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the risk transfer model results account for a specific country or field based on a location modifier factor. 
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the risk transfer model results generate a future risk score that estimates future non-productive time performance. 
     
     
         9 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the risk transfer model comprises land and offshore non-productive time. 
     
     
         10 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the risk transfer model converts the risk transfer model results from a non-productive time risk to a financial risk. 
     
     
         11 . An apparatus for estimating actual downtimes from drilling operations using a risk transfer model, comprising:
 a non-transitory memory;   a processor coupled to the non-transitory memory, wherein the processor obtains computer executable instructions stored on a non-transitory memory that when executed by the processor causes the apparatus to perform the following:
 receive a plurality of field parameters that correspond to a plurality of planned runs via an input interface; 
 determine a non-productive time risk for each of the planned runs based on the field parameters; 
 generate a total non-productive time risk using one or more Monte Carlo trials; and 
 output the total non-productive time risk via a user interface, 
   wherein the number of Monte Carol trials is received via the input interface.   
     
     
         12 . The apparatus of  claim 11 , wherein the non-productive time risk is based on a non-productive time event frequency parameter and a non-productive time severity parameter associated with the one or more planned runs. 
     
     
         13 . The apparatus of  claim 12 , wherein the non-productive time event frequency parameter is a function of a bottom hole assembly configuration parameter. 
     
     
         14 . The apparatus of  claim 12 , wherein the non-productive time severity is a function of a hole size parameter, a depth parameter, a drilled length parameter, and a maximum dog leg parameter associated with the one or more planned runs. 
     
     
         15 . The apparatus of  claim 12 , wherein the non-productive time severity for each planned run is multiplied by a binary frequency function to compute the non-productive time distribution. 
     
     
         16 . The apparatus of  claim 11 , wherein the non-productive time risk results account for a specific country or field based on a location modifier factor. 
     
     
         17 . The apparatus of  claim 11 , wherein the non-productive time risk results comprises land and offshore non-productive time. 
     
     
         18 . A system comprising:
 an input interface;   an user interface;   a processor coupled the input interface and the user interface, wherein the processor receives computer executable instructions stored on a memory that when executed by the processor causes the following:
 receive a plurality of field parameters that correspond to a plurality of planned runs via an input interface; 
 determine a non-productive time risk for each of the planned runs based on the field parameters; 
 generate a total non-productive time risk using one or more Monte Carlo trials; and 
 output the total non-productive time risk via a user interface, 
   wherein the number of Monte Carol trials is received via the input interface.   
     
     
         19 . The system of  claim 18 , wherein the non-productive time risk is based on a non-productive time event frequency parameter and a non-productive time severity parameter associated with the one or more planned runs. 
     
     
         20 . A method, system, and apparatus magnetically detecting equipment external to a downhole pipe prior to performing certain well operations as shown and described.