US2016196623A1PendingUtilityA1
System And Method For Determining Centralized Power Generation Loss Savings For Energy Generation With The Aid Of A Digital Computer
Est. expiryJul 5, 2033(~6.9 yrs left)· nominal 20-yr term from priority
Inventors:Thomas E. Hoff
H02J 3/004H02J 3/003H02J 2103/30H02J 2101/24Y02E10/50G06Q 40/12Y04S50/14G06Q 50/06G06Q 30/0202H02J 2101/10H02J 3/381Y04S10/50Y02E10/56Y04S40/20Y02E60/00Y02E40/70
51
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Claims
Abstract
Value of solar (VOS) analysis begins with the observation that photovoltaic power production represents a unique form of energy resource that is indifferent to demand and price signals. The technical analysis predicts future central power generation requirements, as reflected by estimated customer demand, using an energy balance approach. A customer demand forecasting equation with three unknown values, distributed photovoltaic power production, centralized power generation, and losses associated with the centralized power generation, is solved by applying key rational assumptions in combination with historical data of centralized power generation and distributed photovoltaic power production. The solution to the demand equation is then provided with economic data. Loss savings are calculated by comparing the difference between the results for the load matching for centralized power generation with distributed photovoltaic power production and centralized power generation with centralized photovoltaic power production.
Claims
exact text as granted — not AI-modifiedWhat is claimed is:
1 . A method for determining centralized power generation loss savings for energy generation with the aid of a digital computer, comprising the steps of:
providing a computer with a time series of readings of distributed photovoltaic power production by distributed photovoltaic power production systems recorded at regular intervals over an initial period of power consumption; providing the computer with a time series of readings of centralized power generation by a power generation plant recorded at the same regular intervals over the initial period of power consumption; estimating, by the computer, time series data for distributed photovoltaic power production over an extended time period of interest and setting the distributed photovoltaic power production for the extended time period as the summation of the time series data for distributed photovoltaic power production over all hours of the extended time period; estimating, by the computer, time series data for centralized photovoltaic power production over the extended time period of interest and setting the centralized photovoltaic power production over the extended time period as the sum of the hourly photovoltaic production over all hours of the extended time period; and determining, by the computer, loss savings for energy generation over the extended time period as a ratio of the distributed photovoltaic power production over the extended time period and the centralized photovoltaic power production over the extended time period.
2 . A method according to claim 1 , further comprising the step of:
calculating the loss savings for energy generation Loss Savings t over the extended time period t in accordance with:
Loss
Savings
t
=
E
t
,
Distributed
PV
E
t
,
Central
PV
-
1
where E h t,Distributed PV is the time series data for distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour h in the extended time period t and E t,Central PV is the time series data for centralized photovoltaic power production for each hour h in the extended time period t.
3 . A method according to claim 1 , further comprising the steps of:
forecasting, by the computer, centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as a function of centralized power generation, normalized centralized power generation and normalized distributed photovoltaic power production, wherein fleet capacity remains unchanged throughout the extended time period; forecasting, by the computer, centralized power generation with distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as a function of centralized power generation, normalized centralized power generation and normalized distributed photovoltaic power production; and calculating, by the computer, the time series data for the distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as the difference between the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production for that hour in the extended time period and the centralized photovoltaic power production with distributed photovoltaic power production for that hour in the extended time period.
4 . A method according to claim 3 , further comprising the step of:
calculating the distributed photovoltaic power production E t,Distributed PV for the extended time period t in accordance with:
E
t
,
Distributed
PV
=
∑
h
=
1
N
E
h
t
,
Distributed
PV
where E h t,Distributed PV is the time series data for distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour h in the extended time period t and N is the number of hours in the extended time period t.
5 . A method according to claim 4 , further comprising the step of:
calculating the time series data for distributed photovoltaic power production E h t,Distributed PV for each hour h in the extended time period t in accordance with:
E h t,Distributed PV =G h t,w/o PV −G h t,w/ Distributed PV
where G h t,w/o PV is the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t and G h t,w/ Distributed PV is the centralized power generation with distributed photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t.
6 . A method according to claim 5 , further comprising the step of:
calculating the centralized power generation with distributed photovoltaic power production G h t,w/ Distributed PV at hour h in the extended time period tin accordance with:
G
h
t
,
w
/
Distributed
PV
=
(
G
*
0
rt
2
η
*
)
[
1
-
1
+
4
η
*
[
η
*
rt
(
G
^
h
0
)
2
-
G
^
h
0
+
R
g
^
h
0
]
]
where η * >0, G * 0 is the centralized power generation, Ĝ h 0 is the normalized centralized power generation at hour h in the extended time period t, ĝ h 0 is the normalized distributed photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t,
R
=
(
C
0
G
*
0
)
(
C
t
C
0
-
rt
-
1
)
,
C 0 is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the beginning of the extended time period t, and C t is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the ending of the extended time period t.
7 . A method according to claim 6 , further comprising the step of:
calculating the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production G h t,w/o PV at hour h in the extended time period tin accordance with:
R
No
New
PV
=
(
C
0
G
*
0
)
(
-
rt
-
1
)
such that C t =C 0 .
8 . A method according to claim 1 , further comprising the steps of:
forecasting, by the computer, centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as a function of centralized power generation, normalized centralized power generation and normalized distributed photovoltaic power production, wherein fleet capacity remains unchanged throughout the extended time period; forecasting, by the computer, centralized power generation with centralized photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as a function of centralized power generation, normalized centralized power generation and normalized distributed photovoltaic power production; and calculating, by the computer, the time series data for the centralized photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as the difference between the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production for that hour in the extended time period and the centralized photovoltaic power production with centralized photovoltaic power production for that hour in the extended time period.
9 . A method according to claim 8 , further comprising the step of:
calculating the centralized photovoltaic power production E t,Central PV for the extended time period t in accordance with:
E
t
,
Central
PV
=
∑
h
=
1
N
E
h
t
,
Central
PV
where E h t,Central PV is the time series data for centralized photovoltaic power production for each hour h in the extended time period t and N is the number of hours in the extended time period t.
10 . A method according to claim 9 , further comprising the step of:
calculating the time series data for centralized photovoltaic power production E h t,Central PV for each hour h in the extended time period t in accordance with:
E h t,Central PV =G h t,w/o PV −G h t,w/ Central PV
where G h t,w/o PV is the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t and G h t,w/ Central PV is the centralized power generation with centralized photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t.
11 . A method according to claim 10 , further comprising the step of:
calculating the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production G h t,w/o PV at hour h in the extended time period t in accordance with:
G
h
t
,
w
/
o
PV
=
(
G
*
0
rt
2
η
*
)
[
1
-
1
+
4
η
*
[
η
*
rt
(
G
^
h
0
)
2
-
G
^
h
0
+
R
g
^
h
0
]
]
where η * >0, G * 0 is the centralized power generation, Ĝ h 0 is the normalized centralized power generation at hour h in the extended time period t, ĝ h 0 is the normalized distributed photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t,
R
=
(
C
0
G
*
0
)
(
C
t
C
0
-
rt
-
1
)
,
C t is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the ending of the extended time period t, C 0 is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the beginning of the extended time period t, such that C t =C 0 and:
R
No
New
PV
=
(
C
0
G
*
0
)
(
-
rt
-
1
)
.
12 . A method according to claim 11 , further comprising the step of:
calculating the centralized power generation with centralized photovoltaic power production G h t,w/ Central PV at hour h in the extended time period tin accordance with:
G
h
t
,
w
/
Central
PV
=
G
h
t
,
w
/
oPV
-
(
C
t
C
0
)
g
^
h
where G h t,w/o PV is the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production, C t is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the ending of the extended time period t, C 0 is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the beginning of the extended time period t, and ĝ h is the normalized distributed photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t.
13 . A method according to claim 1 , further comprising the steps of:
providing the loss savings for energy generation over the extended time period to a production output controller for the power generation plant; and during extended time period, operating the production output controller for the power generation plant to realize the loss savings for energy generation over the extended time period.
14 . A system for determining centralized power generation loss savings for energy generation with the aid of a digital computer, comprising:
a computer comprising a processor configured to execute code, comprising:
a time series module configured to receive a time series of readings of distributed photovoltaic power production by distributed photovoltaic power production systems recorded at regular intervals over an initial period of power consumption;
a power generation module configured to receive a time series of readings of centralized power generation by a power generation plant recorded at the same regular intervals over the initial period of power consumption;
an estimation module configured to estimate time series data for distributed photovoltaic power production over an extended time period of interest and to set the distributed photovoltaic power production for the extended time period as the summation of the time series data for distributed photovoltaic power production over all hours of the extended time period;
a production module configured to estimate time series data for centralized photovoltaic power production over the extended time period of interest and to set the centralized photovoltaic power production over the extended time period as the sum of the hourly photovoltaic production over all hours of the extended time period; and
a loss savings module configured to determine loss savings for energy generation over the extended time period as a ratio of the distributed photovoltaic power production over the extended time period and the centralized photovoltaic power production over the extended time period.
15 . A system according to claim 14 , further comprising:
a forecasting module configured to forecast centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as a function of centralized power generation, normalized centralized power generation and normalized distributed photovoltaic power production, wherein fleet capacity remains unchanged throughout the extended time period; a power generation forecasting module configured to forecast centralized power generation with distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as a function of centralized power generation, normalized centralized power generation and normalized distributed photovoltaic power production; and a calculation module configured to calculate the time series data for the distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as the difference between the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production for that hour in the extended time period and the centralized photovoltaic power production with distributed photovoltaic power production for that hour in the extended time period.
16 . A system according to claim 14 , further comprising:
a forecasting module configured to forecast centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as a function of centralized power generation, normalized centralized power generation and normalized distributed photovoltaic power production, wherein fleet capacity remains unchanged throughout the extended time period; a power generation forecasting module configured to forecast centralized power generation with centralized photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as a function of centralized power generation, normalized centralized power generation and normalized distributed photovoltaic power production; and a calculation module configured to calculate the time series data for the centralized photovoltaic power production for each hour in the extended time period as the difference between the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production for that hour in the extended time period and the centralized photovoltaic power production with centralized photovoltaic power production for that hour in the extended time period.
17 . A system according to claim 16 , further comprising:
a production calculation module configured to calculate the centralized photovoltaic power production E t,Central PV for the extended time period t in accordance with:
E
t
,
Central
PV
=
∑
h
=
1
N
E
h
t
,
Central
PV
where E h t,Central PV is the time series data for centralized photovoltaic power production for each hour h in the extended time period t and N is the number of hours in the extended time period t.
18 . A system according to claim 17 , further comprising the step of:
a time series calculation module configured to calculate the time series data for centralized photovoltaic power production E h t,Central PV for each hour h in the extended time period t in accordance with:
E h t,Central PV =G h t,w/o PV −G h t,w/ Central PV
where G h t,w/o PV is the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t and G h t,w/ Central PV is the centralized power generation with centralized p power production at hour h in the extended time period t.
19 . A system according to claim 18 , further comprising the step of:
a centralized power generation module configured to calculate the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production G h t,w/o PV at hour h in the extended time period t in accordance with:
G
h
t
,
w
/
o
PV
=
(
G
*
0
rt
2
η
*
)
[
1
-
1
+
4
η
*
[
η
*
rt
(
G
^
h
0
)
2
-
G
^
h
0
+
R
g
^
h
0
]
]
where η * >0, G * 0 is the centralized power generation, Ĝ h 0 is the normalized centralized power generation at hour h in the extended time period t, ĝ h 0 is the normalized distributed photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t,
R
=
(
C
0
G
*
0
)
(
C
t
C
0
-
rt
-
1
)
,
C t is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the ending of the extended time period t, C 0 is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the beginning of the extended time period t, such that C=C 0 and:
R
No
New
PV
=
(
C
0
G
*
0
)
(
-
rt
-
1
)
.
20 . A system according to claim 19 , further comprising the step of:
a centralized power generation calculation module configured to calculate the centralized power generation with centralized photovoltaic power production G h t,w/ Central PV at hour h in the extended time period t in accordance with:
G
h
t
,
w
/
Central
PV
=
G
h
t
,
w
/
o
PV
-
(
C
t
C
0
)
g
^
h
where G h t,w/o PV is the centralized power generation with no additional distributed photovoltaic power production, C t is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the ending of the extended time period t, C 0 is the fleet capacity of the centralized power generation at the beginning of the extended time period t, and ĝ h is the normalized distributed photovoltaic power production at hour h in the extended time period t.Join the waitlist — get patent alerts
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