Re-tasking Balloons in a Balloon Network Based on Expected Failure Modes of Balloons

Abstract

Example methods and systems for assigning tasks to balloons within a balloon network are described. One example system includes a first sub-fleet of balloons assigned a first set of one or more tasks within a balloon network, a second sub-fleet of balloons assigned a second set of one or more tasks within the balloon network, and a control system configured to determine that a first balloon in the first sub-fleet of balloons initially has a predicted failure mode that corresponds to the first set of tasks, subsequently determine that the first balloon has a predicted failure mode that corresponds to the second set of tasks, and reassign the first balloon from the first sub-fleet of balloons to the second sub-fleet of balloons.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A system comprising:
 a balloon; and   a control system configured to:
 determine at a first time that a first component of the balloon is predicted to fail; 
 based on determining that the first component of the balloon is predicted to fail, assign the balloon to perform a first task within a network of balloons; 
 determine at a later second time that a second component of the balloon is predicted to fail earlier than the first component of the balloon; and 
 in response to determining that the second component of the balloon is predicted to fail earlier than the first component of the balloon, reassign the balloon from the first task to perform a second task within the network of balloons, wherein performance of the second task reduces usage of the second component of the balloon relative to performance of the first task. 
   
     
     
         2 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein a particular task has a corresponding priority level and wherein the control system is further configured to:
 determine that the second task has a higher corresponding priority level than at least one other task within the network of balloons, wherein performance of the at least one other task reduces usage of the second component of the balloon relative to performance of the first task; and   reassign the balloon from the first task to perform the second task within the network of balloons based on determining that the second task has a higher corresponding priority level than the at least one other task.   
     
     
         3 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the control system is further configured to:
 determine at the first time that the first component of the balloon is predicted to fail based on sensor data from one or more sensors on the balloon; and   determine at the second time that the second component of the balloon is predicted to fail based on sensor data from the one or more sensors on the balloon.   
     
     
         4 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the control system is further configured to:
 periodically determine that a different component of the balloon is predicted to fail;   determine that the different component is more likely to fail earlier than any other component previously predicted to fail; and   in response to determining that the different component of the balloon is more likely to fail earlier than any other component previously predicted to fail, reassign the balloon from a current task performed by the balloon to perform a different task within the network of balloons, wherein performance of the different task reduces usage of the different component of the balloon relative to the current task performed by the balloon.   
     
     
         5 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the control system is further configured to:
 periodically determine that a particular task has an inadequate number of balloons assigned to perform the particular task; and   in response to determining that the particular task has the inadequate number of balloons assigned to perform the particular task, reassign the balloon to perform the particular task.   
     
     
         6 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the control system is further configured to determine at the later second time that the second component of the balloon is predicted to fail earlier than the first component of the balloon by determining that one or more other balloons that performed at least the first task have experienced a failure of the second component. 
     
     
         7 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the control system is further configured to determine that a component of the balloon is predicted to fail by determining a probability distribution of expected failure of the balloon component over time. 
     
     
         8 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the control system is further configured to reassign the balloon from the first task to perform the second task within the network of balloons after an initial time period during which the balloon is exposed to one or more stress tests. 
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the first task and the second task are each at least one of (i) communicating with one or more ground-based stations, (ii) serving as a relay balloon between other balloons within the network, (iii) assisting in weather forecasting, and (iv) traveling along long-distance flight paths. 
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein:
 the first task comprises traveling along long-distance flight paths;   the second component is a balloon envelope; and   the second task comprises serving as a relay balloon between other balloons within the network of balloons.   
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein:
 the first task comprises serving as a relay balloon between other balloons within the network of balloons;   the second component is a communication system configured for communication between the balloon and the other balloons within the network of balloons; and   the second task comprises collecting data for weather forecasting.   
     
     
         12 . A method comprising:
 determining at a first time that a first component of a balloon is predicted to fail;   based on determining that the first component of the balloon is predicted to fail, assigning the balloon to perform a first task within a network of balloons;   determining at a later second time that a second component of the balloon is predicted to fail earlier than the first component of the balloon; and   in response to determining that the second component of the balloon is predicted to fail earlier than the first component of the balloon, reassigning the balloon from the first task to perform a second task within the network of balloons, wherein performance of the second task reduces usage of the second component of the balloon relative to performance of the first task.   
     
     
         13 . The method of  claim 12 , wherein a particular task has a corresponding priority level, the method further comprising:
 determining that the second task has a higher corresponding priority level than at least one other task within the network of balloons, wherein performance of the at least one other task reduces usage of the second component of the balloon relative to performance of the first task; and   reassigning the balloon from the first task to perform the second task within the network of balloons based on determining that the second task has a higher corresponding priority level than the at least one other task.   
     
     
         14 . The method of  claim 12 , further comprising:
 determining at the first time that the first component of the balloon is predicted to fail based on sensor data from one or more sensors on the balloon; and   determining at the second time that the second component of the balloon is predicted to fail based on sensor data from the one or more sensors on the balloon.   
     
     
         15 . The method of  claim 12 , further comprising:
 periodically determining that a different component of the balloon is predicted to fail;   determining that the different component is more likely to fail earlier than any other component previously predicted to fail; and   in response to determining that the different component of the balloon is more likely to fail earlier than any other component previously predicted to fail, reassigning the balloon from a current task performed by the balloon to perform a different task within the network of balloons, wherein performance of the different task reduces usage of the different component of the balloon relative to the current task performed by the balloon.   
     
     
         16 . The method of  claim 12 , further comprising determining at the later second time that the second component of the balloon is predicted to fail earlier than the first component of the balloon by determining that one or more other balloons that performed at least the first task have experienced a failure of the second component. 
     
     
         17 . A non-transitory computer readable storage medium having stored therein instructions, that when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform functions comprising:
 determining at a first time that a first component of a balloon is predicted to fail;   based on determining that the first component of the balloon is predicted to fail, assigning the balloon to perform a first task within a network of balloons;   determining at a later second time that a second component of the balloon is predicted to fail earlier than the first component of the balloon; and   in response to determining that the second component of the balloon is predicted to fail earlier than the first component of the balloon, reassigning the balloon from the first task to perform a second task within the network of balloons, wherein performance of the second task reduces usage of the second component of the balloon relative to performance of the first task.   
     
     
         18 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 17 , wherein a particular task has a corresponding priority level and wherein the functions further comprise:
 determining that the second task has a higher corresponding priority level than at least one other task within the network of balloons, wherein performance of the at least one other task reduces usage of the second component of the balloon relative to performance of the first task; and   reassigning the balloon from the first task to perform the second task within the network of balloons based on determining that the second task has a higher corresponding priority level than the at least one other task.   
     
     
         19 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 17 , wherein the functions further comprise:
 determining at the first time that the first component of the balloon is predicted to fail based on sensor data from one or more sensors on the balloon; and   determining at the second time that the second component of the balloon is predicted to fail based on sensor data from the one or more sensors on the balloon.   
     
     
         20 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 17 , wherein the functions further comprise:
 periodically determining that a different component of the balloon is predicted to fail;   determining that the different component is more likely to fail earlier than any other component previously predicted to fail; and   in response to determining that the different component of the balloon is more likely to fail earlier than any other component previously predicted to fail, reassigning the balloon from a current task performed by the balloon to perform a different task within the network of balloons, wherein performance of the different task reduces usage of the different component of the balloon relative to the current task performed by the balloon.