Mortality Progression Methods and Systems

Abstract

Methods and systems for preparing improved mortality tables for use with life insurance and other financial products are described herein. The improved mortality tables described herein account for progression over time of insureds from one underwriting class to another, e.g., based on deteriorating health over time. An insured who is in a “preferred” class at the time of initial underwriting might not still qualify for “preferred” status in 5 years, or even the next year. By creating a system of linear equations that predict the composition of a group n years after underwriting, insurance (and other financial products) providers can calculate more definite costs for pricing financial products based on the estimated or expected transition from one underwriting class to another.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A system comprising:
 a processor; and   memory storing data and computer-executable instructions, which when executed by the processor, cause the system to perform:
 determining an original distribution of mortality for each of a plurality of underwriting classes of a plurality of people underwritten for a financial product, by analyzing the data stored in the memory; 
 projecting a future distribution of mortality corresponding to each original distribution based on a predetermined set of progression tables that model an expected movement of insureds from one underwriting class to another over time; 
 storing the tables in the memory; 
 analyzing the projected future distributions of mortality to predict a percentage of insureds in each underwriting class likely to accept a product offering associated with the financial product; and 
 generating a cost for the product offering based on the predicted percentages of insureds in each underwriting class likely to accept the product offering. 
   
     
     
         2 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the financial product comprises life insurance. 
     
     
         3 . The system of  claim 2 , wherein the product offering is guaranteed insurability option rider. 
     
     
         4 . The system of  claim 2 , wherein the product offering is a term conversion of the life insurance. 
     
     
         5 . One or more non-transitory computer readable storage media comprising instructions that, when executed by a data processing device, predict movement of an insured from one underwriting class to another over time by:
 identifying an expected mortality based on an underwriting class for people of a same age that have been underwritten within a predetermined time period for a financial product;   analyzing actual death claims to identify actual mortality of the people at a predetermined point in the future;   determining a difference between the actual mortality at the predetermined point in the future and an expected mortality of a hypothetical underwriting of the people at that predetermined point in the future, wherein a portion of the people have experienced a deterioration in health since original underwriting such that their mortality will be higher at the predetermined point in the future than would otherwise be expected had their health not deteriorated;   repeating the identifying, analyzing, and determining steps for each of a plurality of ages, underwriting classes, and for multiple different predetermined points in the future; and   creating a plurality of equations, based on the determined differences in mortality, that model the expected movement of insureds from one underwriting class to another over time to explain the observed differences in mortality.   
     
     
         6 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , said instructions further comprising creating one or more progression tables based on the plurality of equations, said progression tables representing the probability of each person moving from an age-underwriting class combination to each any other underwriting class or death at the next age; and
 applying the progression tables to an initial set of one or more corresponding mortality tables to create a modified set of one or more mortality tables.   
     
     
         7 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , wherein analyzing comprises using an existing select and ultimate mortality table to obtain the actual mortality of the people at the predetermined point in the future. 
     
     
         8 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 6 , wherein a weighted average of mortality based on the progression tables approximates the actual observed mortality for an age-underwriting class combination. 
     
     
         9 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , said instructions further comprising generating a separate progression table for each combination of age and underwriting class based on the plurality of equations. 
     
     
         10 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , wherein the financial product is one of life insurance, accident insurance, disability insurance, and long term care insurance. 
     
     
         11 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 8 , wherein the plurality of predetermined points in the future comprises integer year values based on a date of underwriting. 
     
     
         12 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , said instructions further comprising performing a graduation process to the system of equations. 
     
     
         13 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , said instructions further comprising calculating a cost for a term conversion life insurance product based on the system of equations. 
     
     
         14 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , said instructions further comprising calculating a cost for a guaranteed issue life insurance policy based on the system of equations. 
     
     
         15 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , said instructions further comprising calculating a cost based on a lapse rate using the system of equations. 
     
     
         16 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , said instructions further comprising calculating a cost for a guaranteed insurability option rider using the system of equations. 
     
     
         17 . The non-transitory computer readable storage media of  claim 5 , wherein the financial product comprises a group life insurance product having a mixture of people in a plurality of underwriting classes. 
     
     
         18 . A special-purpose computer system comprising:
 a processor; and   memory storing computer readable instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the system to perform:
 identifying an expected mortality based on an underwriting class for people of a same age that have been underwritten within a predetermined time period for a financial product; 
 analyzing actual death claims to justify actual mortality of the people at a predetermined point in the future; 
 determining the difference between the actual mortality at the predetermined point in the future and an expected mortality of a hypothetical underwriting of the people at that predetermined point in the future, wherein a portion of the people have experienced a deterioration in health since original underwriting such that their mortality will be higher at the predetermined point in the future than would otherwise be expected had their health not deteriorated; 
 repeating the identifying, analyzing, and determining functions for each of a plurality of ages, underwriting classes, and for multiple different predetermined points in the future; and 
 creating a plurality of equations, based on the determined differences in mortality, that model the expected movement of insureds from one underwriting class to another over time to explain the observed differences in mortality. 
   
     
     
         19 . The system of  claim 18 , said instructions further comprising creating one or more progression tables based on the plurality of equations, said progression tables representing the probability of each person moving from an age-underwriting class combination to each any other underwriting class or death at the next age; and
 applying the progression tables to an initial set of one or more corresponding mortality tables to create a modified set of one or more mortality tables.   
     
     
         20 . The system of  claim 18 , wherein the system analysis comprises using an existing select and ultimate mortality table to obtain the actual mortality of the people at the predetermined point in the future. 
     
     
         21 . The system of  claim 19 , further storing computer readable instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the system to perform generating a cost for a life insurance product based on the progression tables.