Systems and methods for utilizing an economic model that incorporates economic influences to predict transactions

Abstract

Systems and methods for utilizing models that incorporate economic influences to predict transactions and/or events. In one embodiment, a method is described that generates a predictive model that may incorporate economic influences, such as weekdays in a month, lagging economic indicators such as unemployment data, leading economic indicators such as an industrial index, energy costs such as the price of gas, and real-world events such as precipitation, and utilizing the predictive model to predict events such as car insurance claims.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A computer implemented method, utilizing at least one processor and memory, for generating and utilizing a predictive model, the method comprising:
 selecting a time series analysis model to be utilized to generate the predictive model;   selecting a first economic factor and a second economic factor to be incorporated into the predictive model;   generating, using the at least one processor, the predictive model based on the time series analysis model, a first data point representing the first economic factor and a second data point representing the second economic factor.   
     
     
         2 . The computer implemented method of  claim 1 , wherein the first economic factor is related to a number of workdays in a time period, and wherein the second economic factor is related to an industrial index, and wherein the predictive model relates to providing an estimate for an amount of vehicle insurance claims that will be asserted based on a plurality of vehicle insurance policies, the method further comprising:
 calculating an estimated amount of vehicle insurance claims that will be asserted, in the time period, from a plurality of vehicle insurance policies that have been issued by an insurance company.   
     
     
         3 . The computer implemented method of  claim 2 , wherein the time period is a month, the method further comprising:
 selecting a month and a year, wherein the step of calculating the estimated amount of vehicle insurance claims comprises calculating the estimated amount for the selected month and year.   
     
     
         4 . The computer implemented method of  claim 3 , wherein the first data point representing the first economic factor comprises the number of weekdays in the selected month and year that are not Federal Holidays. 
     
     
         5 . The computer implemented method of  claim 3 , wherein the first data point representing the first economic factor comprises the number of weekdays in the selected month and year that are not Federal Holidays, with the exception that Federal Holidays are not excluded from the count if they are outside of both the first week and the last week of the selected month and year. 
     
     
         6 . The computer implemented method of  claim 2  further comprising
 selecting a third economic factor to be incorporated into the predictive model, wherein the third economic factor is selected from the group of: a factor that relates to a lagging economic indicator, a factor that relates to energy prices, and a factor that relates to precipitation, and wherein the predictive model is further based on a third data point representing the third economic factor. 
 
     
     
         7 . The computer implemented method of  claim 6 , wherein, when the third factor relates to energy prices, the step of generating the predictive model comprises negatively correlating the third data point with the estimated amount of vehicle insurance claims that will be asserted. 
     
     
         8 . The computer implemented method of  claim 2 , further comprising:
 selecting a third economic factor to be incorporated into the predictive model, wherein the third economic factor is selected from the group of: a factor that relates to an unemployment rate, a factor that relates to gas prices, and a factor that relates to precipitation, and wherein the predictive model is further based on a third data point representing the third economic factor.   
     
     
         9 . The computer implemented method of  claim 2 , wherein the step of generating the predictive model comprises positively correlating the first data point and the second data point with the estimated amount of vehicle insurance claims that will be asserted. 
     
     
         10 . The computer implemented method of  claim 1 , wherein the predictive model relates to estimating a net amount of vehicles that will be added to a plurality of vehicle insurance policies, the method further comprising:
 calculating, via the modeling engine, an estimated amount of vehicles that will be added, in a time period, to a plurality of insurance policies.   
     
     
         11 . The computer implemented method of  claim 10 , wherein the first economic factor is related to energy prices, and wherein the second economic factor is related to a ratio of vehicles in inventory as compared to an amount of vehicles sold, the method further comprising:
 selecting a third economic factor that is an amount of cars and light trucks sold, wherein the predictive model is further based on a third data point representing the third economic factor.   
     
     
         12 . The computer implemented method of  claim 11 , wherein the first economic factor relating to energy prices comprises a factor related to a price of gas. 
     
     
         13 . A non-transitory computer readable storage medium and a computer program embedded therein, the computer program comprising a processor and instructions, which when executed by the processor cause the computer system to:
 select a time series analysis model to be utilized to generate a predictive model, wherein the predictive model relates to providing an estimate for an amount of vehicle insurance claims that will be asserted from a plurality of vehicle insurance policies;   select a first economic factor and a second economic factor to be incorporated into the predictive model, wherein the first economic factor is related to a number of workdays in a time period, and wherein the second economic factor is related to a leading economic indicator;   generate the predictive model based on the time series analysis model and a first data point representing the first economic factor and a second data point representing the second economic factor.   
     
     
         14 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 13 , the instructions further causing the computer system to:
 calculate an estimated amount of vehicle insurance claims for a month and year.   
     
     
         15 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 14 , wherein the first data point representing the first economic factor comprises the number of weekdays in the selected month and year that are not Federal Holidays, with the exception that Federal Holidays are not excluded from the count if they are outside of both the first week and the last week of the selected month and year. 
     
     
         16 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 15 , the instructions further causing the computer system to:
 select a third economic factor to be incorporated into the predictive model, wherein the third economic factor is selected from the group of: a factor that relates to a lagging economic indicator, a factor that relates to energy prices, and a factor that relates to precipitation, and wherein the predictive model is further based on a third data point representing the third economic factor.   
     
     
         17 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 14 , the instructions further causing the computer system to:
 select a third economic factor to be incorporated into the predictive model, wherein the third economic factor is related to a lagging economic indicator;   select a fourth economic factor to be incorporated into the predictive model, wherein the fourth economic factor is related to energy prices;   select a fifth economic factor to be incorporated into the predictive model, wherein the fifth economic factor is related to precipitation, wherein the predictive model is further based on a third data point representing the third economic factor, a fourth data point representing the fourth economic factor, and a fifth data point representing the fifth economic factor.   
     
     
         18 . The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of  claim 17 , wherein the predictive model is negatively correlated with the fourth data point, and wherein the predictive model is positively correlated with the first, second, third and fifth data points. 
     
     
         19 . A computer implemented method for generating and utilizing a predictive model, the method comprising:
 selecting, via a management system's modeling engine, a time series analysis model to be utilized to generate a predictive model, the management system comprising the modeling engine, memory and a processor, wherein the predictive model relates to providing an estimate for an amount of vehicle insurance claims that will be asserted based on a plurality of vehicle insurance policies;   selecting, via the modeling engine, a first economic factor to be incorporated into the predictive model, wherein the first economic factor is related to a number of workdays in a time period;   accessing, via a retrieval engine, a first data point that represents the first economic factor, the management system further comprising the retrieval engine;   communicating the time series analysis model and the data point to a calculation engine, the management system further comprising the calculation engine;   generating, via the processor, the predictive model based on the time series analysis model and the data point;   communicating the predictive model to the modeling engine; and   calculating, by the modeling engine utilizing the processor, an estimated amount of vehicle insurance claims that will be asserted, in the time period, from a plurality of vehicle insurance policies that have been issued by an insurance company.   
     
     
         20 . The computer implemented method of  claim 19 , wherein the factors further include a second economic factor that relates to energy prices and a third economic factor that relates to precipitation, the method further comprising:
 accessing, via the retrieval engine, a second data point that represents the second economic factor, wherein the second data point is also communicated to the calculation engine; and   accessing, via the retrieval engine, a third data point that represents the third economic factor, wherein the third data point is also communicated to the calculation engine, wherein the step of generating the predictive model comprises generating the predictive model based on the time series analysis model and the three data points.