System and method for simulating return

Abstract

The invention generally relates to a tool for planning a communication campaign. The invention provides systems and methods for communicating through mobile devices in which a publisher can model the effectiveness of a customer's communication campaign as a function of media purchase quantity to aid the customer in selecting a purchase quantity that optimizes a ratio of return on investment to risk. The publisher can do this by providing the customer with access to a computer server system that includes a campaign management tool with an ROI simulator. In certain aspects, the invention provides a method of planning communication on mobile devices by receiving a set of communication campaign parameters, simulating effectiveness as a function of units purchased for the received parameters, and for providing the simulated effectiveness for a plurality of values for the units purchased.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method of planning communication on mobile devices, the method comprising:
 receiving at a publisher computer system a set of communication campaign parameters;   simulating effectiveness as a function of units purchased for the received parameters, wherein a unit comprises an instance of causing a communication to be delivered via a mobile device;   providing the simulated effectiveness for a plurality of values for the units purchased; and   receiving from a customer an order to purchase a number of units.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein providing the simulated effectiveness comprises sending, to a customer computer, data comprising a ratio of return on investment to risk for the plurality of values and causing the customer computer to show the simulated effectiveness within a display. 
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising showing the customer that an optimal effectiveness is provided by a number of units purchased lower than the highest of the plurality of values for the units purchased. 
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising suggesting to the customer to purchase fewer than the highest of the plurality of values for the units purchased. 
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising causing a customer computer to render a display that can be used by the customer to provide the campaign parameters and review the provided simulated effectiveness. 
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein effectiveness is defined to include a ratio of return to risk. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein simulating effectiveness comprises assuming a fixed value for a conversion rate and calculating a return based on the conversion rate, a publisher's impression cost, a customer's campaign cost, and optionally other variables. 
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 7 , wherein the communication comprises an offer and the conversion rate represents a hypothetical percentage of mobile device users to whom the offer is delivered who then redeem the offer. 
     
     
         9 . A communication method comprising:
 receiving at a publisher computer system campaign cost information from an advertiser;   determining a conversion rate to use, wherein conversion rate includes a percentage of people that receive an offer who respond to the offer;   predicting an ROI/risk ratio to an advertiser for each of a plurality of impression quantities, based on factors that include the campaign cost, an impression cost, and the conversion rate, wherein an impression includes showing the offer to a consumer via their mobile device;   providing the ROI/risk ratio for each of the different impression purchase quantities to the advertiser; and   receiving from the advertiser an order for a quantity of impressions.   
     
     
         10 . The method of  claim 9 , wherein the factors further include prospect rate, the method further comprising causing an advertiser computer to render a display for use by the advertiser to provide the campaign cost information, review the ROIs, and order the quantity of impressions. 
     
     
         11 . The method of  claim 9 , further comprising:
 providing a digital media sharing service via a plurality of mobile devices;   obtaining—for a plurality of users of the sharing service—information about interests of various individual ones of the users; and   aiding, using the publisher computer system, the advertiser in targeting the offer based on the interests of the various individual ones of the users.   
     
     
         12 . The method of  claim 11 , further comprising:
 showing the advertiser a first quantity of impressions available for purchase; and   suggesting to the advertiser to purchase a second quantity of impressions lower than the first, wherein the first quantity is associated with a first ROI that is lower than the a second ROI associated with the second quantity.   
     
     
         13 . The method of  claim 9  further comprising allowing the advertiser to change the campaign cost information and updating the provided ROI within a few seconds of receiving the change. 
     
     
         14 . The method of  claim 9 , wherein the campaign cost information comprises at least one selected from the list consisting of: campaign execution cost; product selling price; and discount price. 
     
     
         15 . The method of  claim 9 , wherein providing the ROI for each of the different impression purchase quantities comprises causing an advertiser computer to display a graph of ROI/risk over impression quantity, the graph comprising a portion with a positive slope and a portion with a negative slope. 
     
     
         16 . A system for communicating via mobile devices, the system comprising:
 a publisher computer system comprising a tangible, non-transitory memory coupled to a processor, the system operable to:
 receive from an advertiser a set of ad campaign parameters; 
 simulate return as a function of units purchased for the received parameters; and 
 provide the simulated return for a plurality of values for the units purchased to the advertiser. 
   
     
     
         17 . The system of  claim 16 , further operable to show the customer that an optimal effectiveness is provided by a number of units purchased lower than the highest of the plurality of values for the units purchased. 
     
     
         18 . The system of  claim 16 , further operable to suggest to the customer to purchase fewer than the highest of the plurality of values for the units purchased, wherein effectiveness is defined to include a ratio of return to risk. 
     
     
         19 . The system of  claim 16 , wherein simulating effectiveness comprises assuming a fixed value for a conversion rate and calculating a return based on the conversion rate, a publisher's impression cost, a customer's campaign cost, and optionally other variables. 
     
     
         20 . The system of  claim 16 , wherein the communication comprises an offer and the effectiveness is calculated based on a fixed conversion rate representing a hypothetical percentage of mobile device users to whom the offer is delivered who then redeem the offer.