Methods and apparatus to determine the effects of trade promotions on subsequent sales

Abstract

Example methods and apparatus to determine the effects of trade promotions on subsequent sales are disclosed. A disclosed example method includes determining a plurality of decremental effect factors, each corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks, wherein at least some of the decremental effect factors are indicative of a downward trend in sales of a product that was under a promotion condition during a first one of the plurality of weeks. The example method also includes determining a plurality of decremental effect terms, each decremental effect term equal to the product of a corresponding coefficient multiplied by a corresponding one of the decremental effect factors, and determining a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms. Further, the example method includes determining a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term, and generating a report including the pantry loading incremental sub-volume.

1 . A computer implemented method to identify sales effects of a trade promotion, comprising:
 identifying, with a processor, non-promotional prices, each non-promotional price corresponding to a respective one of product identifiers associated with products sold in a retail establishment;   calculating weighting factors indicative of effects on sales volumes associated with the product identifiers;   calculating of first distribution volumes based on the weighting factors, each first distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers having the respective non-promotional price;   calculating promoted price indexes based on a logarithmic ratio of price associated with the trade promotion and the non-promotional prices; and   calculating a plurality of second distribution volumes based on the first distribution volumes and the promoted price indexes, each second distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers associated with the trade promotion.   
     
     
         2 . A method as defined in  claim 1 , wherein the weighting factors are indicative of competitive trade effects. 
     
     
         3 . A method as defined in  claim 2 , further comprising calculating the competitive trade effects as a Jaccard weight. 
     
     
         4 . A method as defined in  claim 1 , wherein the weighting factors are indicative of brand trade cannibalization effects. 
     
     
         5 . A method as defined in  claim 1 , further comprising calculating incremental distribution volumes based on the differences between the first distribution volumes and the second distribution volumes. 
     
     
         6 . A method as defined in  claim 5 , wherein the first distribution volumes are indicative of baseline product volumes. 
     
     
         7 . A method as defined in  claim 5 , wherein the second distribution volumes are indicative of pantry-loading volumes. 
     
     
         8 . A method as defined in  claim 1 , wherein calculating the second distribution volumes further comprises calculating cannibalization lift terms for a time period after the trade promotion. 
     
     
         9 . A method as defined in  claim 8 , wherein the cannibalization lift terms comprise the log of the products sold in the retail establishment divided by the first distribution volumes. 
     
     
         10 . An apparatus to identify sales effects of a trade promotion, comprising:
 a baseline volume manager to identify non-promotional prices, each non-promotional price corresponding to a respective one of product identifiers associated with products sold in a retail establishment;   a weighting value generator to calculate weighting factors indicative of effects on sales volumes associated with the product identifiers, the weighting value generator to calculate first distribution volumes based on the weighting factors, each first distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers having the respective non-promotional price;   a pre-model data generator to calculate promoted price indexes based on a logarithmic ratio of price associated with the trade promotion and the non-promoted prices; and   a scoring processor to calculate second distribution volumes based on the first distribution volumes and the promoted price indexes, each second distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers associated with the trade promotion.   
     
     
         11 . An apparatus as defined in  claim 10 , wherein the weighting factors are indicative of competitive trade effects. 
     
     
         12 . An apparatus as defined in  claim 11 , further comprising a target product comparator to calculate the competitive trade effects as a Jaccard weight. 
     
     
         13 . An apparatus as defined in  claim 10 , further comprising an incremental driver data generator to calculate incremental distribution volumes based on the differences between the plurality of first distribution volumes and the second distribution volumes. 
     
     
         14 . An apparatus as defined in  claim 10 , wherein the pre-model data generator is to calculate the second distribution volumes by calculating cannibalization lift terms for a time period after the trade promotion. 
     
     
         15 . A tangible machine-readable storage medium comprising instructions that, when executed by one or more processors in a computing apparatus, cause the one or more processors to, at least:
 identify a non-promotional prices, each non-promotional price corresponding to a respective one of product identifiers associated with products sold in a retail establishment;   calculate weighting factors indicative of effects on sales volumes associated with the product identifiers;   calculate first distribution volumes based on the weighting factors, each first distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers having the respective non-promotional price;   calculate promoted price indexes based on a logarithmic ratio of price associated with the trade promotion and the non-promotional prices; and   calculate second distribution volumes based on the first distribution volumes and the promoted price indexes, each second distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers associated with the trade promotion.   
     
     
         16 . A machine-readable storage medium as defined in  claim 15 , further comprising instructions to cause the one or more processors to, when executed, calculate the weighting factors as a Jaccard weight. 
     
     
         17 . A machine-readable storage medium as defined in  claim 15 , further comprising instructions to cause the one or more processors to, when executed, calculate incremental distribution volumes based on the differences between the first distribution volumes and the second distribution volumes. 
     
     
         18 . A machine-readable storage medium as defined in  claim 17 , further comprising instructions to cause the one or more processors to, when executed, identify a baseline product volume with the first distribution volumes. 
     
     
         19 . A machine-readable storage medium as defined in  claim 15 , further comprising instructions to cause the one or more processors to, when executed, calculate cannibalization lift terms for a time period after the trade promotion. 
     
     
         20 . A machine-readable storage medium as defined in  claim 19 , further comprising instructions to cause the one or more processors to, when executed, divide the log of the products sold in the retail establishment by the first distribution volumes to calculate the cannibalization lift terms.