Determining and considering a premium related to petroleum reserves and production characteristics when valuing petroleum production capital projects

Abstract

Determining a Reservoir Management Factor™ (RMF™ or β) for a petroleum producer provides a novel indicator and metric that is designed for use in quickly assessing the economics of undertaking petroleum production capital projects for the petroleum producer. The RMF™ or β can be determined according to the following equation: β=sum of regression coefficients=sum of(reserves coefficient,production coefficient) wherein, reserves coefficient=the coefficient of the petroleum producer's reserves; and production coefficient=the coefficient of the petroleum producer's production.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . In a computing system having a processor and system memory and which is configured to receive and analyze data relating petroleum rate production for a petroleum producer and petroleum reserves for the petroleum producer, a method for determining a reservoir management factor for a petroleum producer, comprising:
 inputting into the computing system a coefficient of reserves for the petroleum producer;   inputting into the computing system a coefficient of production for the petroleum producer; and   relating the coefficient of reserves and the coefficient of production through a multivariable correlation to obtain the reservoir management factor (β).   
     
     
         2 . The method as in  claim 1 , wherein the coefficient of reserves and coefficient of production are determined at least in part from data included in a 10K filing. 
     
     
         3 . The method as in  claim 1 , further comprising using statistical algorithms to determine the coefficient of production from the historically observed data for a sample set of petroleum producers. 
     
     
         4 . The method as in  claim 1 , further comprising using statistical algorithms to determine the coefficient of reserves from the historically observed data for a sample set of petroleum producers. 
     
     
         5 . The method as in  claim 1 , wherein relating the coefficient of reserves and the coefficient of production through a multivariable correlation comprises relating the sum of the coefficient of reserves and the coefficient of production through a multivariable correlation to obtain the reservoir management factor (β). 
     
     
         6 . The method as in  claim 5 , wherein the reservoir management factor (β) is formulated according to the following equation:
   β=coefficient of reserves+coefficient of production
 
 
     
     
         7 . The method as recited in  claim 1 , further comprising determining a true value index (TVI) for a capital project for the petroleum producer, comprising:
 inputting into the computing system data relating to the barrels of proven reserves (Reserves) to be created by the capital project;   inputting into the computing system data relating to a net present value (NPV) of the capital project; and   the computing system determining, by relating the reserve management factor to the barrels of proven reserves and relating the relation of the reserve management factor to the barrels of proven reserves to the net present value, the true value index (TVI) for the capital project.   
     
     
         8 . A method as in  claim 7 , wherein the true value index (TVI) is determined according to the following equation:
   TVI=NPV+(β*Reserves).
   
     
     
         9 . A method as in  claim 7 , further comprising using the true value index (TVI) as part of a method for determining the economical feasibility of the capital project. 
     
     
         10 . The method as in  claim 7 , wherein inputting data relating to the barrels of proven reserves (Reserves) comprises inputting data relating to the barrels of P1 reserves. 
     
     
         11 . In a computing system having a processor and system memory and which is configured to receive and analyze data relating petroleum rate production for a petroleum producer and petroleum reserves for the petroleum producer, a method for determining a reservoir management factor (β), comprising
 obtaining a coefficient of reserves for the petroleum producer through a multivariable correlation; 
 obtaining a coefficient of production for the petroleum producer through a multivariable correlation; and 
 summing the coefficient of reserves and the coefficient of production to obtain the reservoir management factor (β). 
 
     
     
         12 . The method as in  claim 11 , wherein the coefficient of reserves and coefficient of production are determined from data included in a 10K filing. 
     
     
         13 . The method as in  claim 11 , wherein obtaining a coefficient of reserves for the petroleum producer through a multivariable correlation comprises using statistical algorithms to determine the coefficient of reserves from historically observed data for a sample set of a plurality of petroleum producers. 
     
     
         14 . The method as in  claim 11 , wherein obtaining a coefficient of production for the petroleum producer through a multivariable correlation comprises using statistical algorithms to determine the coefficient of production from historically observed data for a sample set of a plurality of petroleum producers. 
     
     
         16 . The method as in  claim 11 , wherein the reservoir management factor (β) is formulated according to the following equation:
   β=coefficient of reserves+coefficient of production
 
 
     
     
         17 . The method as in  claim 11 , wherein the reservoir management factor (β) reflects a market premium on increased reserves if the petroleum producer were a publicly traded corporation. 
     
     
         18 . The method as in  claim 11 , wherein the coefficient of reserves and the coefficient of production are regression coefficients. 
     
     
         19 . A method for formulating a reservoir management factor (β) for a petroleum producer, comprising:
 formulating a coefficient of reserves for the petroleum producer, the coefficient of reserves being determined through multivariable analysis of historically observed data for a sample set of a plurality of petroleum producers; 
 formulating a coefficient of production for the petroleum producer, the coefficient of production being determined through multivariable analysis of the historically observed data for the sample set of the plurality of petroleum producers; and 
 adding the coefficient of reserves to the coefficient of production to obtain the reservoir management factor (β). 
 
     
     
         20 . The method of  claim 19 , further comprising calculating a true value index (TVI) for a capital project for the petroleum producer, comprising:
 accessing data relating to barrels of proven reserves (Reserves) to be created by the capital project;   accessing data relating to a net present value (NPV) of the capital project; and   determining, by relating the reserve management factor to the barrels of proven reserves and relating the relation of the reserve management factor to the barrels of proven reserves to the net present value, the true value index (TVI) for the capital project.