Method and System For Determining Time-Phased Product Sales Forecasts and Projected Replenishment Shipments For A Retail Store Supply Chain

Abstract

A time phased forecasting and replenishment system ( 20 ) for retail organizations which can be used for inventory management and financial management. One or more computers ( 28 ) create time phased plans for one or more retail facilities, such as various types of retail stores ( 23 ) and/or various types of suppliers ( 24 ). The system calculates projected sales for each product at each facility and calculates projected replenishment shipments between facilities and suppliers a specified number of weeks into the future. The calculated forecasts and replenishments are done in ways that account for the unique needs of retail organizations, and allow efficient processing and storage of the large data volumes typical in many retail organizations.

1 ) A computer-implemented forecasting system for determining time-phased product sales forecasts for a retail store supply chain using product sales data generated by retail stores in the chain and as a function of changes in date, relative to preceding years, of a holiday that impacts shopping patterns. 
     
     
         2 ) A computer-implemented forecasting system according to  claim 1 , wherein said system additionally determines said forecasts by smoothing product demand except during a specified time period proximate a holiday that affects shopping patterns. 
     
     
         3 ) A computer-implemented forecasting system for determining time-phased product sales forecasts for a retail store supply chain using product sales data generated by retail stores in the chain and by smoothing product demand except during a specified time period proximate a holiday that affects shopping patterns. 
     
     
         4 ) A computer-implemented forecasting system for determining time-phased product sales forecasts for a retail store supply chain using product sales data generated by retail stores in the chain and by determining said projected sales within a first time period by allocating greater projected sales to certain days within said first time period, further wherein said forecasting system includes an override for reallocating said greater projected sales to selected days within said first time period that are proximate a holiday where increased sales are expected to occur based on proximity of said selected days to the holiday. 
     
     
         5 ) A system according to  claim 4 , where said first time period is a week. 
     
     
         6 ) A system according to  claim 4 , wherein said first time period is a number of days less than seven. 
     
     
         7 ) A computer-implemented forecasting system for determining time-phased product sales forecasts for a retail store supply chain using product sales data generated by retail stores in the chain and by grouping selected different products together and treating them as a single product. 
     
     
         8 ) A computer-implemented replenishment system for determining time-phased projected replenishment shipments for a retail store supply chain using projected sales data for retail stores in the chain generated by a forecasting system, wherein the replenishment system groups selected products together and treats them as a single product. 
     
     
         9 ) A system according to  claim 8 , wherein said replenishment system (i) determines first projected replenishment shipments for said single product for a first entity in the retail store supply chain and (ii) determines second projected replenishment shipments of said single product to said first entity by a second entity in the retail store supply chain using said first projected replenishment shipments. 
     
     
         10 ) A computer-implemented system for determining time-phased product sales forecasts for a retail store supply chain using product sales data generated by retail stores in the chain and by generating said sales forecasts for a product during a promotional period for said product on a daily basis using daily sales data generated during said promotional period for said product. 
     
     
         11 ) A system according to  claim 10 , wherein said system determines planned replenishment shipments to the retail stores in the chain using said forecasts, further wherein said replenishment shipments for a product to be promoted during a promotional period are determined using safety stock levels before said promotional period and are determined using safety time levels during said promotional period. 
     
     
         12 ) A system according to  claim 10 , wherein said system revises said forecasts for a product during said promotional period based on a combination of (a) an original promotional forecast for said product and (b) sales history data obtained during said promotional period for said product. 
     
     
         13 ) A system according to  claim 12 , wherein said original promotional forecast and said sales history data are each weighted. 
     
     
         14 ) A system according to  claim 12 , wherein new projected sales for a product are determined by the system using a weighted combination of said original promotional forecast and said sales history data. 
     
     
         15 ) A system according to  claim 10 , wherein said sales forecasts for a product are generated during a promotional period for said product more frequently than a daily basis using sales data generated during said promotional period for said product more frequently than daily. 
     
     
         16 ) A computer-implemented system for determining time-phased product sales forecasts for a retail store supply chain using product sales data generated by retail stores in the chain, wherein said system stores a product sales forecast for a first time period and stores a portion of said forecast for a second time period that is shorter than said first time period 
     
     
         17 ) A system according to  claim 16 , further wherein said system stores a portion of said product sales forecast in a third time period that is shorter than the first time period and shorter than the second time period. 
     
     
         18 ) A system according to  claim 16 , further comprising persistent memory and transient memory, wherein said forecast is stored in said persistent memory and said portion of said forecast for said second time period is stored in said transient memory. 
     
     
         19 ) A system according to  claim 16 , wherein said system stores said portion of said forecast so that said second time period includes at least one third time period and at least one fourth time period, said fourth time period being shorter than said third time period. 
     
     
         20 ) A system according to  claim 16 , wherein said third time period is a day and said fourth time period is an hour. 
     
     
         21 ) A system according to  claim 16 , wherein said system stores said portion so that said second time period includes a plurality of days for a most-current time portion of said second time period and a plurality of weeks for a next-most-current time portion of said second time period. 
     
     
         22 ) A system according to  claim 16 , wherein said system stores said portion so that said second time period includes a plurality of hours for a most-current time portion of said second time period and a plurality of days for a next-most-current time portion of said second time period and a plurality of weeks for a next-most-current time portion of said second time period. 
     
     
         23 ) A system according to  claim 16 , wherein said forecast for said first time period is stored in a database having a plurality of rows, at least one of said rows containing a forecast for a first product for a first time interval and at least one other of said rows containing a forecast for a second product for a second time interval that is longer than said first time interval. 
     
     
         24 ) A system according to  claim 16 , wherein said first product sells in higher volumes than said second product. 
     
     
         25 ) A system according to  claim 16 , wherein said forecast for said first time period is stored in a database having a plurality of rows, at least one of said rows containing a forecast for a first product for a first time interval and at least one other of said rows containing a forecast for said first product for a second time interval that is longer than said first time interval. 
     
     
         26 ) A system according to  claim 16 , wherein said forecast for said first time period is stored in a database having a plurality of rows, wherein one of said rows contains forecasts for a first product for a series of first time intervals and for a series of second time intervals, wherein said second time intervals are each longer than said first time intervals. 
     
     
         27 ) A system according to  claim 16 , wherein said forecast for said first time period is stored in a database having a plurality of rows, wherein a portion of said plurality of said rows contains forecasts for a first product for a series of first time intervals and for a series of second time intervals, wherein said second time intervals are each longer than said first time intervals and said portion has fewer rows than the sum of said first time intervals and said second time intervals.