Determining Relative Player Skills and Draw Margins

Abstract

A process for determining relative player skills and draw margins is described. Information about an outcome of a game between at least a first player opposing a second player is received. Also, for each player, skill statistics are received associated with a distribution representing belief about skill of that player. Draw margin statistics are received associated with a distribution representing belief about ability of that player to force a draw. An update process is performed to update the statistics on the basis of the received information about the game outcome. In an embodiment a Bayesian inference process is used during the update process which may take past and future player achievement into account.

1 . A method comprising:
 receiving information about an outcome of a game between at least a first player opposing a second player;   receiving, for each player, skill statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about skill of that player;   receiving, for each player, draw margin statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about ability of that player to force a draw;   updating the statistics on the basis of the received information about the game outcome.   
   
   
       2 . A method as claimed in  claim 1  wherein the updating process comprises using a Bayesian inference process. 
   
   
       3 . A method as claimed in  claim 1  wherein the step of receiving information about the game outcome comprises receiving an outcome of a game between at least a first team opposing a second team, the first team comprising a plurality of players and the second team comprising at least one other player. 
   
   
       4 . A method as claimed in  claim 1  wherein the updating process comprises forming a factor graph using the received information about the game outcome and carrying out a message passing process in the factor graph. 
   
   
       5 . A method as claimed in  claim 1  wherein the skill statistics comprise an individual mean and an individual variance for each player. 
   
   
       6 . A method as claimed in  claim 1  wherein the draw margin statistics comprise an individual mean and an individual variance for each player. 
   
   
       7 . A method as claimed in  claim 1  which further comprises receiving information about a player proposing a game and selecting at least one other player for the proposed game on the basis of draw margin statistics determined for that at least one other player. 
   
   
       8 . A method as claimed in  claim 1  wherein the step of receiving information about a game outcome comprises receiving information about a plurality of game outcomes; and wherein the process of receiving skill statistics and draw margin statistics comprises receiving a time series of skill statistics and a time series of draw margin statistics for each player. 
   
   
       9 . A method as claimed in  claim 8  which further comprises updating both time series of statistics both forwards and backwards in those time series on the basis of the game outcome information. 
   
   
       10 . A method as claimed in  claim 8  which further comprises determining average skill statistic values over all players for each time series interval. 
   
   
       11 . A method as claimed in  claim 8  which further comprises determining average draw margin statistic values over all players for each time series interval. 
   
   
       12 . One or more computer readable media containing computer executable instructions that, when implemented, perform a method comprising:
 receiving information about an outcome of a game between at least a first player opposing a second player;   receiving, for each player, skill statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about skill of that player;   receiving, for each player, draw margin statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about ability of that player to force a draw;   updating the draw margin statistics on the basis of the received information about the game outcome.   
   
   
       13 . One or more computer readable media as claimed in  claim 12  wherein the updating process comprises using a Bayesian inference process. 
   
   
       14 . One or more computer readable media as claimed in  claim 12  wherein the updating process comprises forming a factor graph using the received information about the game outcome and carrying out a message passing process in the factor graph. 
   
   
       15 . One or more computer readable media as claimed in  claim 12  wherein the skill statistics comprise an individual mean and an individual variance for each player. 
   
   
       16 . One or more computer readable media as claimed in  claim 12  wherein the draw margin statistics comprise an individual mean and an individual variance for each player 
   
   
       17 . One or more computer readable media as claimed in  claim 12  wherein the step of receiving information about a game outcome comprises receiving information about a plurality of game outcomes; and wherein the process of receiving skill statistics and draw margin statistics comprises receiving a time series of skill statistics and a time series of draw margin statistics for each player. 
   
   
       18 . One or more computer readable media as claimed in  claim 17  wherein the updating process further comprises updating both time series of statistics both forwards and backwards in those time series on the basis of the game outcome information. 
   
   
       19 . One or more computer readable media containing computer executable instructions that, when implemented, perform a method comprising:
 receiving information about an outcome of a game between at least a first player opposing a second player;   receiving, for each player, skill statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about skill of that player;   receiving, for each player, draw margin statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about ability of that player to force a draw;   updating the statistics on the basis of the received information about the game outcome; and   wherein the step of receiving information about a game outcome comprises receiving information about a plurality of game outcomes; and wherein the process of receiving skill statistics and draw margin statistics comprises receiving a time series of skill statistics and a time series of draw margin statistics for each player.   
   
   
       20 . One or more computer readable media as claimed in  claim 19  wherein the updating process further comprises updating both time series of statistics both forwards and backwards in those time series on the basis of the game outcome information.