Method, system, and service for determining actual and probable financial loss related to internet performance anomalies

Abstract

The invention broadly comprises a method for determining financial loss related to performance of an internetwork. The method correlates input information regarding performance of an internetwork to operations of a financial entity and translates the correlated input information into a first at least one operational risk for the financial entity. In some aspects, the internetwork is the Internet. The method translates the correlated input information into a first Probability of Default. The method also gathers secondary information, where the secondary information is other than directly from the internetwork, correlates the input and secondary information, and translates the correlated input and secondary information into a second at least one operational risk for the financial entity. In some aspects, the method calculates a second Probability of Default, a Loss Given Default, an Exposure at Default, and a Maturity.

1 . A method for determining financial loss related to performance of an internetwork, comprising: 
 correlating input information regarding performance of an internetwork to operations of a financial entity; and,    translating said correlated input information into a first at least one operational risk for said financial entity.    
     
     
         2 . The method recited in  claim 1  wherein said internetwork is the Internet.  
     
     
         3 . The method recited in  claim 1  wherein said internetwork comprises at least one anomaly; and,  
       said method further comprising: 
 collecting said input information using techniques that simultaneously record topology and performance;  
 detecting said at least one anomaly in at least one portion of said internetwork; and,  
 characterizing said at least one anomaly by type, severity, duration, and effect, wherein said at least one anomaly is selected from the group consisting of denial of service (DoS) attacks, worms, congestion, routing flaps, and other degradation, denial, or disconnection of Internet connectivity.  
 
     
     
         4 . The method recited in  claim 1  wherein translating said correlated input information into a first at least one operational risk for said financial entity further comprises calculating a first Probability of Default.  
     
     
         5 . The method recited in  claim 4  wherein said financial entity comprises a first plurality of customers and calculating said first Probability of Default further comprises: 
 determining a first customer from said first plurality of customers to be affected by said at least one anomaly; and,    calculating a frequency, severity, and duration of said effect of said at least one anomaly with respect to said first customer.    
     
     
         6 . The method recited in  claim 1  further comprising: 
 gathering secondary information, where said secondary information is other than directly from said internetwork;    correlating said input and secondary information; and,    translating said correlated input and secondary information into a second at least one operational risk for said financial entity.    
     
     
         7 . The method recited in  claim 6  wherein translating said correlated input and secondary information further comprises calculating a first Probability of Default and a Loss Given Default.  
     
     
         8 . The method recited in  claim 7  wherein said financial entity comprises a second plurality of customers and calculating said second Probability of Default further comprises: 
 determining a second customer from said second plurality of customers to be affected by said at least one anomaly; and,    calculating a frequency, severity, and duration of said effect of said at least one anomaly with respect to said second customer.    
     
     
         9 . The method recited in  claim 8  wherein calculating said Loss Given Default further comprises: 
 for each customer in said second plurality of customers, estimating use of said internetwork to reach said financial entity and estimating a value of said use to said each customer;    combining said estimates of use and said value of said use to estimate a likelihood of said each customer failing to complete a transaction delayed or interrupted by said at least one anomaly; and,    calculating a loss for said financial entity associated with said failing to complete a transaction.    
     
     
         10 . The method recited in  claim 9  further comprising: 
 using said Loss Given Default to estimate an Exposure at Default, where said Exposure at Default is a financial loss for said financial entity associated with said at least one anomaly.    
     
     
         11 . The method recited in  claim 10  wherein said financial entity comprises a third customer with an ongoing contract or account with said financial entity; and,  
       said method further comprising: 
 calculating Maturity for said third customer, where said Maturity is a remaining proportion of said ongoing contract or account; and,  
 wherein using said Loss Given Default to estimate Exposure at Default further comprises combining said second Probability of Default and said Loss Given Default with said Maturity to calculate a long-term component of said Exposure at Default.  
 
     
     
         12 . The method recited in  claim 3  further comprising: 
 aggregating said at least one anomaly over time.    
     
     
         13 . The method recited in  claim 1  wherein determining a first operational risk further comprises estimating at least one actual effect and at least one probable effect of said operational risk over a time span, aggregating said at least one probable effect, and summarizing said aggregation.  
     
     
         14 . The method recited in  claim 1  wherein said financial entity is tracking a current state of said internetwork; and,  
       said method further comprising: 
 periodically correlating said input information;  
 periodically translating said periodically correlated input information; and,  
 providing at least one update regarding said at least one operational risk to said financial entity.  
 
     
     
         15 . The method recited in  claim 1  wherein said internetwork comprises a future anomaly and a current anomaly; and,  
       said method further comprising: 
 predicting said future anomaly and a progress of said current anomaly.  
 
     
     
         16 . The method recited in  claim 1  wherein said financial entity is a bank.  
     
     
         17 . A method for determining financial loss related to performance of the Internet, comprising: 
 collecting input information regarding performance of the Internet using techniques that simultaneously record topology and performance;    detecting at least one anomaly in at least one portion of the Internet, said at least one anomaly selected from the group consisting of denial of service (DoS) attacks, worms, congestion, routing flaps, and other degradation, denial, or disconnection of the Internet connectivity;    gathering secondary information, where said secondary information is other than directly from the Internet;    correlating said input and secondary information to operations of a bank;    translating said correlated input and secondary information into at least one operational risk for said financial entity, said at least one operational risk selected from the group consisting of a probability of default (PD), a loss given default (LGD), an exposure at default (EAD), and a remaining economic maturity (M) of the exposure;    aggregating said at least one anomaly over time;    determining historical performance of a current anomaly among said at least one anomaly;    providing predictions of performance of a future anomaly in the Internet;    reporting details of said at least one anomaly as said at least one anomaly occurs; and,    using said secondary information to calibrate accuracy and reliability of said at least one operational risk.    
     
     
         18 . A system for determining financial loss related to performance of an internetwork, comprising: 
 means to correlate input information regarding performance of an internetwork to operations of a financial entity; and,    means to translate said correlated input information into a first at least one operational risk for said financial entity, where said means to correlate and means to translate are located in at least one specially-programmed general purpose computer.    
     
     
         19 . The system recited in  claim 18  wherein said internetwork is the Internet.  
     
     
         20 . The system recited in  claim 18  wherein said internetwork comprises at least one anomaly; and,  
       said system further comprising: 
 means to collect said input information using techniques that simultaneously record topology and performance;  
 means to detect said at least one anomaly in at least one portion of said internetwork; and,  
 means to characterize said at least one anomaly by type, severity, duration, and effect,  
 where said means to collect, said means to detect, and said means to characterize are located in said general purpose computer.  
 
     
     
         21 . The system recited in  claim 18  wherein said means to translate said correlated input information into a first at least one operational risk for said financial entity further comprises a means to calculate a first Probability of Default.  
     
     
         22 . The system recited in  claim 18  further comprising: 
 means to gather secondary external information, where said secondary external information is other than directly from said internetwork;    means to correlate said input and secondary external information; and,    means to translate said correlated input and secondary external information into a second at least one operational risk for said financial entity, where said means to gather, said means to correlate, and said means to translate are located in said at least one general purpose computer.    
     
     
         23 . The system recited in  claim 22  wherein said means to translate said correlated input and secondary information further comprises a means to calculate a second Probability of Default, a Loss Given Default, an Exposure at Default, and a Maturity.